The Weather Thread 2023

[ICGenie]

32 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I've got to the point of a relaxed Zen attitude. Throw whatever you want at me, I'm ready.

I’m still fence sitting and expecting to bring all four!

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, ICGenie said:

I’m still fence sitting and expecting to bring all four!

same but the wellies stay in the car along with my reserve waterproof coat 

[watsonjm]

1 minute ago, ICGenie said:

I’m still fence sitting and expecting to bring all four!

Never wear welling, but the boots, trainers and flip flops are packed 

[Helsbels]

4 hours ago, Havors said:

Well to be fair, getting sunstroke is kind of not the weather's fault. 

He always wears a hat now

[Jose Pose]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Yes, there's a trend, you can see the dotted trend line in the middle, it's 1.5C hotter on average since 1970. Okay so a 6% increase in temperature. So maybe it's not 11 days anymore then. It's 11 days plus 6%. It's 11.66 days. Let's call it 12 for shits and giggles then. You got me. I was out by a day when equating for the global warming trend. That'll probably change my 48% chance of a festival day being over 25C to 50%. Which you'd already rounded it up to anyway.

Obviously the global increase in temperature is a thing that is happening. And we know what level of increase it is at. But the last few summers have been a lot more than 1.5C hotter than average, you can see the spikes on the graphs at the end there. But you can also see spikes in the mid 70s, the mid 90s and the mid 00s, before it drops right back down again.

There are many points in that graph where we have had a few hot summers in a row. It doesn't mean that we're going to have that, forever more, and it'll neve spike down again. Like you said "cant you see a trend?" - you can literally see the trend on that graph, it's a dotted line. And that trend is well below the spikes of most of the summers from the past few years. The spikes are just local weather patterns. They are not global warming. It's exact what that graph shows. 

We could’ve saved everyone a lot of hassle if you’d just admitted you were wrong from the start. It’s not abnormal to see temps of 25 degrees in June, hence why we’ve seen them at every festival since 2016. 

[Crazyfool01]

ok glad thats sorted ... now when's the next run ? 

[kerplunk]

18 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

A climate change denier calls someone thick 😂 You couldn’t make it up. You’re completely ignoring stats from your own source to fit a weird narrative that claims the change isn’t happening.

Look at the graph below from your own source, what does it show happening to temps since 1970? Of course climate change is something that is more noticeable over decades, but the stats you used cover a period going back to 1990, that’s THREE decades ago. It’s 2023 now and we’ve probably had 11 days over 25 already this year.

Are you honestly going to look at the graph below and say you can’t see a trend?

 

Deanol clearly isn't a denier

You've chosen mean temps - should have used daily max temps.

The graph shows a decadal warming trend but with HIGH inter-annual variability. Consistent with variability increasing the further down the global/regional/local scale you go

Edited June 15, 2023 by kerplunk

[Helsbels]

4 hours ago, Jose Pose said:

It’s summer, temperatures of 20-25 are the norm not the exception. 

Im all for these kind of temperatures. Just not 30 degrees like we got in 2019 thanks. Great beach weather, uncomfortably hot festival weather

[FuzzyDunlop]

53 minutes ago, The Toxic Avenger said:

On page 149 of this thread, you were called a c**t.  The guy who called you a c**t was 'playing to the gallery,' i.e. the cowardly tactic of saying what you think will go down well with your audience.  He wasn't wrong: 5 forum regulars decided this was worthy of a thumbs-up.  It wasn't until he was called out on this that he backtracked with his Jeremy Clarkson 'it was only a joke' defence.

I'm genuinely pleased you don't feel bullied in this thread, but some of us spectators are finding the in-group/out-group bullshit a bit unpleasant.  The NFR NFC thing was born over a decade ago when some of then then-regulars of this forum were having a laugh knowingly portraying themselves as superstitious maniacs, i.e. it was self-deprecating humour.  Unfortunately, this throwaway line was turned into a deeply non-funny long-running trope, which attracted the genuinely hard-of-thinking who actually believe that one person's preferences for weather can actually be deemed selfish and punishable.  In years gone by the NFR NFC bullshit net was spread even wider: all of us using the 'science thread' (which is what this thread was referred to as) were called c**ts, and the current regular that did this was proudly unrepentant, even after being called out.

The post on 149 was OTT, but I didnt think too deeply into it as it was brushed over quite quickly. 

I have a different opinion to most on here, by that fact - I will be out numbered. I'd say the vast majority are just disagreeing with me. I havent an issue with that.

I dont want to comment on the other post as I didn't see that.

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by FuzzyDunlop

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

That’s a strange take, remind me again who said how thick some people on efests are? Was it me, oh no it was your mate Deano.

it’s such a tired old boys club in here.

Haha, maybe we haven't met before Jose. I certainly don't know Pete. But just to be clear: I *am* one of the forum dickheads. I've been around a long time but never been part of the boys club because I have some quite unpopular opinions, about how the festival should be for everyone and camping chairs are fine as long as people aren't dicks about it and how vaccines are good and that's it's Pulp.

The problem being I argue my point vociferously with facts and evidence and that winds up a lot of people no-end. I've probably pissed off most posters here at some point.

Good news is, this is my last Glasto so probably my last few weeks on this forum. 

But to be honest, you're more on track to being the new me than getting into the old boys club at this point 😄

[sunnyshoes]

Are we still on a knife edge or are we swaying off the edge now? 

[rubenz]

I feel like we are in for some prime conditions down on the farm where we can all chill out and enjoy the vibes without having to sit on a bin bag or put on those wellies. 

See you all up on the hill for some tremendous sunsets! 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

2 minutes ago, sunnyshoes said:

Are we still on a knife edge or are we swaying off the edge now? 

Don't want to call it too soon. I think we can safely say we've got more of an answer on the set up days which shouldn't be too bad. But the rest is still slightly out of range for reliability. Hold on tight

Edited June 15, 2023 by Bike_Like_A_Mum

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Don't want to call it too soon. I think we can safely say we've got more of an answer on the set up days which shouldn't be too bad. But the rest is still slightly out of range for reliability. Hold on tight

Far too sensible for the weather thread! 😉😊

[dansy]

Right, time to start packing. For shoes, I'm thinking trainers + sliders for quick wee runs. Maybe a spare pair of trainers in the car. For clothes, a couple of jumpers but mostly cool stuff. And hats! Maybeee a raincoat but I like to pack light so maybe not. Definitely not wellies. Lots of M&S premixed mojitos. And my trusty beanie hat for 3-5am in SE corner if it's a bit chilly. Sorted! 

[Breeze]

8 minutes ago, Helsbels said:

Im all for these kind of temperatures. Just not 30 degrees like we got in 2019 thanks. Great beach weather, uncomfortably hot festival weather

If they install that large swimming pond at the bottom of Pennard again like in 2005 30 degrees might be quite nice. 😉

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, dansy said:

Right, time to start packing. For shoes, I'm thinking trainers + sliders for quick wee runs. Maybe a spare pair of trainers in the car. For clothes, a couple of jumpers but mostly cool stuff. And hats! Maybeee a raincoat but I like to pack light so maybe not. Definitely not wellies. Lots of M&S premixed mojitos. And my trusty beanie hat for 3-5am in SE corner if it's a bit chilly. Sorted! 

youll be fine with that although id take the coat as its not much weight for decent reward 

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

We could’ve saved everyone a lot of hassle if you’d just admitted you were wrong from the start. It’s not abnormal to see temps of 25 degrees in June, hence why we’ve seen them at every festival since 2016. 

At all four of those festivals? Yes. 

You're just picking a date that makes the stats work well for you. We can go back to 2016, but if we go back any further, well that data is too old because of global warming. Because of course, Glastonbury 2015, 2014, 2013... all cold. Glasto week June 2021, cold. Glasto week 2018, average. But we ignore those because there wasn't a festival those years...

Hang on, why? Does the festival being there *make* it hotter? 

Like I say, it's about 50/50 on if you get at least one hot day or not that weekend in June. For the past few festivals, it's come off. Looks like it will again this year, hurrah for the heat lovers!

I appreciate global warming makes things hotter but you can't just look at the past five years and then also skip all the years there wasn't a Glastonbury and declare that a weather trend. It's not. It's coincidence.

[fightoffyour]

21 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yes, there's a trend, you can see the dotted trend line in the middle, it's 1.5C hotter on average since 1970. Okay so a 6% increase in temperature. So maybe it's not 11 days anymore then. It's 11 days plus 6%. It's 11.66 days. Let's call it 12 for shits and giggles then. You got me. I was out by a day when equating for the global warming trend. That'll probably change my 48% chance of a festival day being over 25C to 50%. Which you'd already rounded it up to anyway.

Obviously the global increase in temperature is a thing that is happening. And we know what level of increase it is at. But the last few summers have been a lot more than 1.5C hotter than average, you can see the spikes on the graphs at the end there. But you can also see spikes in the mid 70s, the mid 90s and the mid 00s, before it drops right back down again.

There are many points in that graph where we have had a few hot summers in a row. It doesn't mean that we're going to have that, forever more, and it'll neve spike down again. Like you said "cant you see a trend?" - you can literally see the trend on that graph, it's a dotted line. And that trend is well below the spikes of most of the summers from the past few years. The spikes are just local weather patterns. They are not global warming. It's exact what that graph shows. 

6%? That's some wild physics. Temperature doesn't start at zero deg. C!

[Jose Pose]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

At all four of those festivals? Yes. 

You're just picking a date that makes the stats work well for you. We can go back to 2016, but if we go back any further, well that data is too old because of global warming. Because of course, Glastonbury 2015, 2014, 2013... all cold. Glasto week June 2021, cold. Glasto week 2018, average. But we ignore those because there wasn't a festival those years...

Hang on, why? Does the festival being there *make* it hotter? 

Like I say, it's about 50/50 on if you get at least one hot day or not that weekend in June. For the past few festivals, it's come off. Looks like it will again this year, hurrah for the heat lovers!

I appreciate global warming makes things hotter but you can't just look at the past five years and then also skip all the years there wasn't a Glastonbury and declare that a weather trend. It's not. It's coincidence.

I think it’s fair to say the most recent years are more relevant than the less recent years when all data shows average temps have been consistently rising for decades 😂.

Of course I’m sure you think 12 countries in Europe hitting record temps last year including the UK is just pure coincidence. 

[2019]

Apart from someone spilling their beer at the Ridge and Furrow, it's still looking nice. The higher res forecasts are starting to kick in for the early days. Here's the 1pm scroll.

[Barneym]

My god I have a work meeting all morning and come back to this. Can we just stick to what the latest run says then people saying it’s too hot/cold/wet/dusty please. Now I’m meeting from 2.30 until 7 so god knows how many pages I need to catch up on after that. Last run is pretty much perfect for me 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

1 minute ago, 2019 said:

Apart from someone spilling their beer at the Ridge and Furrow, it's still looking nice. The higher res forecasts are starting to kick in for the early days. Here's the 1pm scroll.

Still no idea what I'm looking at

[p.pete]

7 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Still no idea what I'm looking at

I'm struggling too - what does 3bft mean?  I think it means pretty much no rain on Wednesday, including overnight Tuesday, with several different acronym thingys roughly agreeing...

Edit:

Force 3: Gentle Breeze

So the top chart is basically wind?  

Edited June 15, 2023 by p.pete

[kerplunk]

7 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

I think it’s fair to say the most recent years are more relevant than the less recent years when all data shows average temps have been consistently rising for decades 😂.

Of course I’m sure you think 12 countries in Europe hitting record temps last year including the UK is just pure coincidence. 

The data shows high inter-annual variability - the trend emerges at the decadal scale.