The Weather Thread 2023

[briddj]

17 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

To be honest, I don't like the look of that latest GFS run, we're pulling that low from the Atlantic closer on Thursday and Friday, and whilst there's technically very little rain on site, it's extremely close by on several days... Also, no finger. 

It's tight now, if that low moves any closer, it won't be nearly is happy in here, I'm a little nervous now. 😕 
 

We've done that 3 times. It will likely track away again next run ... hopefully.

[Breeze]

30 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

I'd say this tends to be best short range(1-4 days). So next week this would hold more sway for me. 

Yeah I agree on Met Office accuracy. I think whatever Met Office is saying Monday that's what I'm going with. 

[p.pete]

31 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

To be honest, I don't like the look of that latest GFS run, we're pulling that low from the Atlantic closer on Thursday and Friday, and whilst there's technically very little rain on site, it's extremely close by on several days... Also, no finger. 

It's tight now, if that low moves any closer, it won't be nearly is happy in here, I'm a little nervous now. 😕 
 

Nalvoram

[Tranquility of Solitude]

Just now, p.pete said:

Nalvoram

No use of the words Armageddon, apocalypse, biblical, washout, flood, or doomed. Must try harder.

[Ayrshire Chris]

And……back on the rollercoaster, and we are soon approaching that final big up or down that every good coaster has😊

Edited June 16, 2023 by Ayrshire Chris

[p.pete]

4 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

No use of the words Armageddon, apocalypse, biblical, washout, flood, or doomed. Must try harder.

Sorry, it was a cheap shot.  Couldn't resist and will try harder.

[Duggyfresh44]

42 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

To be honest, I don't like the look of that latest GFS run, we're pulling that low from the Atlantic closer on Thursday and Friday, and whilst there's technically very little rain on site, it's extremely close by on several days... Also, no finger. 

It's tight now, if that low moves any closer, it won't be nearly is happy in here, I'm a little nervous now. 😕 
 

I refuse to worry about single outputs now. If it happens 3-4 times and it’s bad/getting worse I’ll worry.

P.S. - I’m scared. 

[The Nal]

Really down to the wire here. 

Very very worrying.

[frostypaw]

46 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

To be honest, I don't like the look of that latest GFS run, we're pulling that low from the Atlantic closer on Thursday and Friday, and whilst there's technically very little rain on site, it's extremely close by on several days... Also, no finger. 

It's tight now, if that low moves any closer, it won't be nearly is happy in here, I'm a little nervous now. 😕 
 

It's those NFCNFRNFC extremists calling "TWIST!" on acceptable reports - doesn't always get better

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202306160000&interval=6&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202306210900

ECMWF still looks pretty good but is a bit more mixed and doesn't have high pressure taking hold so aggressively. Nothing that currently affects next weekend rainfall wise but another trend to watch for. 

The reality is it's looking positive across the board but there are lots of variables and things could still change (and probably will at least once - a pant-soiling GFS run at some point this weekend is almost a certainty). 

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

Really down to the wire here. 

Very very worrying.

So there’s a chance it’s gonna be good? That’s extremely optimistic from your good self 😊😉

[4AssedMonkey]

Literally 48-72 hours ago all models seemed to agree on it lashing down Mon/Tues and chance of showers later in the week.  They've all shifted this to some moderately heavy rain on Sunday/Monday and pretty much as dry as a nun's knickers for the rest of the week.  The trends are in our favour.  Ye of little faith begone!

[tjfish]

37 minutes ago, rwoo said:

I'm glad someone else packs undies like they're planning on pooping themselves everyday. 

Thank you! 

You never know.

[philipsteak]

1 minute ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

Literally 48-72 hours ago all models seemed to agree on it lashing down Mon/Tues and chance of showers later in the week.  They've all shifted this to some moderately heavy rain on Sunday/Monday and pretty much as dry as a nun's knickers for the rest of the week.  The trends are in our favour.  Ye of little faith begone!

If prefer it if it didn't rain on the Monday and Tuesday but willing to take the hit for the rest of you

[Alvoram]

33 minutes ago, briddj said:

We've done that 3 times. It will likely track away again next run ... hopefully.

Yes true, fingers crossed it's just a blip / outlier. But there has been consistency of in this kind of run appearing once or twice a day, so it's not over yet. 

20 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Nalvoram

Nahhh, Even if we do get showers, I don't think it's the end of the world. 🙈😂

18 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

No use of the words Armageddon, apocalypse, biblical, washout, flood, or doomed. Must try harder.

Exactly.... 

4 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

It's those NFCNFRNFC extremists calling "TWIST!" on acceptable reports - doesn't always get better

I think they need to get used to the idea that there will be rain, just hopefully not a lot of it. 

[Breeze]

40 minutes ago, rwoo said:

I'm glad someone else packs undies like they're planning on pooping themselves everyday. 

If you fail to plan (to poop yourself everyday) you are planning to fail (at pooping yourself everyday).  Which sounds OK to me TBF.

[gazzared]

10 minutes ago, Breeze said:

If you fail to plan (to poop yourself everyday) you are planning to fail (at pooping yourself everyday).  Which sounds OK to me TBF.

I don't drink otters ale there anymore and can fart with confidence all week 👏👏👏

[Jacko45]

The continued disregard for us Tuesday people is abhorrent. 

Everyone more than happy for us to get soaked.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, Jacko45 said:

The continued disregard for us Tuesday people is abhorrent. 

Everyone more than happy for us to get soaked.

Correct

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

The continued disregard for us Tuesday people is abhorrent. 

Everyone more than happy for us to get soaked.

We are grateful for your sacrifice. 

[chazwwe]

4 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

The continued disregard for us Tuesday people is abhorrent. 

Everyone more than happy for us to get soaked.

Stick 

[Ayrshire Chris]

10 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

The continued disregard for us Tuesday people is abhorrent. 

Everyone more than happy for us to get soaked.

You lucky people get an extra day on site, isn’t that enough😉😊?

[rwoo]

10 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

The continued disregard for us Tuesday people is abhorrent. 

Everyone more than happy for us to get soaked.

Taking one for the team and we all salute you 😘

[Jacko45]

Yesterday was just about as perfect as it comes in terms of forecasts.

 

Feel like today we might get a little sting in the tail... 

 

Eagerley awaiting full first run. 

[DTichborne]

21 hours ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Perfect, that settles it then. End of thread. 

Hope you manage to find something awesome to take your mind off not being there 😊

I'm doing Latitude!