The Weather Thread 2023

[briddj]

Going to stick my neck out here and say there is NO REAL KNIFE EDGE.

We are only talking about a narrow corridor of what we are likely to get next weekend.

This is NOT a bad run. It's just not quite as good as other recent ones.

And the 06Z has never been our friend.

 

[BambooShanks]

You can't have a rollercoaster without a few dips.

 

Guess we'll see in the next run if this was an outlier or if it continues down this path, though hardly surprising to have a bad run after 8 great ones in a row.

[sprocketrocket]

Just now, briddj said:

Going to stick my neck out here and say there is NO REAL KNIFE EDGE.

We are only talking about a narrow corridor of what we are likely to get next weekend.

This is NOT a bad run. It's just not quite as good as other recent ones.

And the 06Z has never been our friend.

 

Not bad?!! are you high? 

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

Was gonna go out and buy some linen trousers, but might just stick with the jeans now.

[briddj]

Just now, BambooShanks said:

You can't have a rollercoaster without a few dips.

 

Guess we'll see in the next run if this was an outlier or if it continues down this path, though hardly surprising to have a bad run after 8 great ones in a row.

The 06Z that gave rain and 13 degrees on the Sunday.

THAT was a bad run.

[briddj]

Just now, sprocketrocket said:

Not bad?!! are you high? 

Left you multiple missed calls and to my message you reply.

[BambooShanks]

3 minutes ago, briddj said:

The 06Z that gave rain and 13 degrees on the Sunday.

THAT was a bad run.

I should have worded better.  This was a downgrade but nothing to worry about.  21c most days and a couple of light showers over 5 days?  I'd take that any day of the week

Compared to some of the bad ones, this is a dream.  

Edited June 16, 2023 by BambooShanks

[T-Mouse]

I mean this rollercoaster stuff really is all a bit silly. The forecasts broadly have been saying the same thing all week. Monday-Friday risk of showers but decent temps with chance it all missed us. Weekend could see possible return to stability but too far to have any real certainty. 

Be sensible. Bring walking boots and maybe have wellies in the car. Also being your suncream and trainers. Anything could happen. But always remember the forcefield. It's real 

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, BambooShanks said:

I should have worded better.  This was a downgrade but nothing to worry about.  21c most days and a couple of light showers over 5 days?  I'd take that any day of the week

Without the light rain, it's perfect.

[Trunks1993]

Perspective is key. Unsettled weather has been predicted for Glasto week all month. If we get away with a few showers it's a big win and certainly won't effect my festival. Long way to go still unfortuntely.

 

Monday's forecast for Wednesday - Friday. Thursday's forecast for the weekend.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Trunks1993

[Tranquility of Solitude]

I tend to pay more attention (and put more faith in) @deebeedoobee and @pilton digger reports of what is actually taking place in the run up. I also pay close attention to the ground reports supplied by @Sawdusty surfer. I look at these forecasts, (and thank @briddj for their excellent work) certain in the knowledge we’ll get something better/drier than predicted by @The Nal and not as scorching as that feared by @FuzzyDunlop. And every year that’s what happens.

The gates open in 5 days time (yippee!) and the ground is bone dry. It is, as always, going to be a belter.

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

Just now, Tranquility of Solitude said:

I tend to pay more attention (and put more faith in) @deebeedoobee and @pilton digger reports of what is actually taking place in the run up. I also pay close attention to the ground reports supplied by @Sawdusty surfer. I look at these forecasts, (and thank @briddj for their excellent work) certain in the knowledge we’ll get something better/drier than predicted by @The Nal and not as scorching as that feared by @FuzzyDunlop. And every year that’s what happens.

The gates open in 5 days time (yippee!) and the ground is bone dry. It is, as always, going to be a belter.

The best one ever!

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

17 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

Just a reminder that despite the revisionism in this thread ("the forecast always changes last minute!") the forecast does not, in fact, change last minute. Last year I distinctly remember the Friday/Saturday before the festival accurately predicting the festival weather. Likewise for 2019.

It doesn't always but it has quite often. 2019, 2015, 2005 off the top of my head.

[Isaact]

For f**k sake it's going to be a wash out.

[Trunks1993]

14 minutes ago, Isaact said:

For f**k sake it's going to be a wash out.

gut feel? cause not one weather model is suggesting such.

ECM looks good (if not a tad lucky). Damp Wednesday arvo, followed by a dry Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Sprinkle Sunday. Annoyingly they have the 'finger' coming right at the back end of the festival.

I say lucky because there is a LOT of rain hitting the UK at some points according to thier forecast.

[stopwn1981]

Its peaked and now trending downwards - even netweather guys know..

[dansy]

Still not welly weather so I’m happy!

[andymk]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

Some people are a little concerned about what will happen on Friday. Let's see what the O6Z tells us!

THROUGH TO GATES OPENING

This run tracks with the 00Z in suggesting less rain on Sunday that we'd seen in previous run. Good news.

The bad news? The Tuesday rain is back in this run through the afternoon to the early evening, but not heavy rain.

Completely dry when the gates open, temps of 18.

Wednesday itself is effectively dry on this run, and an improvement on the 00Z. Highs of 21.

THURSDAY

The danger of light rain has returned for the afternoon. But again, this is light stuff. Highs of 21.

FRIDAY

Effectively a completely dry day. The blue shown here would be like being dripped on by a tap. Highs of 21.

SATURDAY

Very small showers of rain. Highs of 21.

 

SUNDAY

Completely dry, highs of 22.

 

SUMMARY

***I'm off to Arctic Monkeys now, so there won't be another detailed update today***

We always knew there was likely to be a wobble, and it was almost certain to come with the 06Z - it's the run which has regularly provided a little downgrade or something to be scared of. But if this is the wobble we get, with a small amount of rain added on a few days, we can take that.

With temps remaining at 21 throughout, it's always comfortable.

This run doesn't have the high coming in and taking control, and that means there is a little more rain around (it really isn't much) and temperatures don't soar.

There is a long, long way to go yet! There is a lot of uncertainty about what happens from Friday onwards. It could yet be finger-tastic.

Ensembles wise, there seems to be broad consensus with the GFS 06z up until Thursday next week, then there's significant divergence with the pressure. Does the high take over as it was looking like in the earlier runs, or is the Atlantic low coming in stronger? The operational run pretty much follows the average of the runs throughout the festival period so isn't an outlier as we've had with some of the previous runs

 

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

One Nal is fine - the 6 or 7 tribute acts, however.....

[William Mann]

For the last week AccuWeather had predicted some rain everyday. Today it’s changed it’s mind thank god!

[stopwn1981]

One person saying it’s going to be ok is fine, thread only needs two people 

[downtherabbithole]

pretty much straight sunshine for a month until the festival week, and then back to sunshine the days after the festival. Why lord why

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

The 06Z that gave rain and 13 degrees on the Sunday.

THAT was a bad run.

There were some years where at this point we'd be celebrating the only wash out was going to be the Sunday, because one day of mud is fine...

[chazwwe]

1 hour ago, mazola said:

which is why this is all pointless

Then why are you here.

[airwaves]

1 hour ago, MEGATRONICMEATWAGON said:

Was gonna go out and buy some linen trousers, but might just stick with the jeans now.

Jeans are never your friend in wet weather. Get damp quickly but take an absolute age to get dry. 

I use lightweight travel trousers that dry in minutes. Also convertable into shorts