The Weather Thread 2023

[Harry3]

No finger, some rain to keep the dust down, temps in the early 20s? 
 

stick 

[Alvoram]

4 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

The rain on Tuesday is basically locked in now. Looks to about 30-40mm cumulative - over half a month's rain in just 6 hours. 

The trend is also now that the high will NOT rebuild. SO expect constant showers. 

By Saturday, the site is going to be an absolute warzone. Real trench sh*t. 

Yep, pretty much... 30 - 40mm accumulated between now and the end of the festival. Not terrible' but not good either. Especially as most of it is when the campervans are arriving. 😕 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Still time for the high to rally.

[Duggyfresh44]

3 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Not sure what made you think those days were dry in this run but they're not... 

Fri

Sun

 

Light showers though, thankfully. The real nightmare is this bucket load falling on the Tuesday folk... 

 

For the entire day... It does not stop

This is not a better run, it's the worst yet, that amount of rain, falling for that long, on the day before gates open is genuinely concerning. 😕 

This run realises the fear of that low moving a little further South East again, and pushing the high back much further SE

Hopefully tomorrow brings better news. (On the charts that is, not the forecasts, who will be mostly based off today's charts!!!) 

Sorry to sound like a stuck record but it puked it down on the Tuesday before 2019. Also very heave thunderstorms were possible for the festival itself the weekend before. 

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, Alvoram said:

Yep, pretty much... 30 - 40mm accumulated between now and the end of the festival. Not terrible' but not good either. Especially as most of it is when the campervans are arriving. 😕 

 

Wtf man 😞

[Sheffield Steve]

1 minute ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

This is some monumental spin, especially when you've included images demonstrating rain on every single day next week?

I was just trying to do what briddj does, and put on my rose tinted spectacles! 🤓🤓🤓

[PolygonWindow]

Met office having none of it btw

[Alvoram]

1 minute ago, Duggyfresh44 said:

Sorry to sound like a stuck record but it puked it down on the Tuesday before 2019. Also very heave thunderstorms were possible for the festival itself the weekend before. 

Oh I'm not worried, yet, this is one run, there's plenttttyyyyyy of time yet. 👍

Just don't see the sense in pretending this is a 'better' run, or a decent run... It's not.

Just now, Jacko45 said:

 

Wtf man 😞

Don't worry, there is still time, this is one run of many many more. 

[rlandy95]

Still plenty of time for things to shift to better conditions, but as is still pretty ok 👍 Metoffice reporting temps of 22/23º for the Wednesday/Thursday.

Edited June 16, 2023 by rlandy95

[Dizzy2012]

Ok, I’ve read this thread for soooo long and I have found the courage to out myself and ask…

where are these forecasts from?

what do you mean by gfs, “the finger”??!!

whats 18z, 6z, 12z?

Any other acronyms I should be aware of? I’ve been around long enough to understand NFR NFC… been coming since 2008 😳😳

 

[clarkete]

12 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

Is this another Nal impersonator?

It's only when the tribute acts started that we truly recognised why there could only be one Nal in the weather thread.

[stopwn1981]

incoming 
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/glastonbury-2016-festivalgoers-take-21-hours-to-reach-site-as-crash-and-weather-wreak-havoc-a3277871.html

[rlandy95]

1 minute ago, Dizzy2012 said:

where are these forecasts from?

usually looking at https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs 🙂

you can also read what the real weather enthusiasts think here https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/page/104/ 

I don't truly understand the acronyms so I'll leave someone else to explain that stuff haha 

[Sheffield Steve]

This is the rain sequence from now until the end of the festival according to the ECMWF.  
Not too dissimilar to the GFS, except there is LESS rain on Tuesday. 
Thereafter there is no major rain at all - a few showers but mostly dry.   BUT there is heavy rain to our NW and SE at various times, so there is always time for this to change.   This is going to be a year when we really won’t know until the last minute next week.  But then, what’s new?
 

[Gnomicide]

1 hour ago, fightoffyour said:

2016 was a shitshow, awful conditions underfoot (and what should be underarse) all week. However. those conditions did create an atmosphere that led to one of if not the greatest set the festival or even the world has ever seen.

Quite right. That Billy Bragg set was incredible. 

[Trunks1993]

5 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

incoming 
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/glastonbury-2016-festivalgoers-take-21-hours-to-reach-site-as-crash-and-weather-wreak-havoc-a3277871.html

rained for about 3 months straight before this - quite a big difference. f**k I’ve bitten haven’t I

[Alvoram]

8 minutes ago, Dizzy2012 said:

Ok, I’ve read this thread for soooo long and I have found the courage to out myself and ask…

where are these forecasts from?

what do you mean by gfs, “the finger”??!!

whats 18z, 6z, 12z?

Any other acronyms I should be aware of? I’ve been around long enough to understand NFR NFC… been coming since 2008 😳😳

 

I'll try in plain terms, but I'm no expert, so if anybody wants to correct or clarify anything I say, go ahead. 

They're not forecasts. Each one is the result of 30 (in the case of GFS) runs of a computer simulation that attempts to predict the weather.

The GFS is one of many weather forecasting models, or in plain terms, computers that run these types of simulations. 

18z 6z etc refer to the 24 hour clock. 🙂 It's when the runs start, they output several hours later, and we get the results and share them... 

Let me reiterate though, they're ABSOLOUTELY NOT forecasts. Much cleverer people than us take the results of all of these simulations and predict the weather from them, but they're just a bit slow to update, hence Met Office still showing the results of yesterday's runs as their forecasts. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Alvoram

[Trunks1993]

ECM still predicting a classic. Couple of showers, perfect temps. Y’all fair weather festival goers. Last year at this point forecast was 16c and miserable.

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

18 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

So what will the 12z bring us?

A little more rain than the 6z is the answer, but how much more?

The rain on the Sunday is there as usual, but then it introduces a period of rain up from the south on the Tuesday, just to keep the dust down.
 

 

So, gates open on Wednesday to a dry start but there’s a low hanging about in the north sea and the GFS wants to produce some showers during the day, but nothing major.    High of 21c.


 

Thursday is a repeat of Wednesday, the pressure pattern is neither here nor there, so it reckons there’ll be some showers about but again, nothing major.  Again, a high of 21c.


 

Friday, the finger starts to push in and pressure rises, but again the GFS wants to give us showers, and again, nothing but a sprinkle.  And also not too hot again, a high of 21c.

 

Saturday is slightly more worrying, a depression appears to the south of Ireland which produces some noticeable rain over Wales.  As long as that stays where it is, all is fine on Saturday, again not too hot at 21c.

 

And the on to Sunday, the Azores finger tries to shove the low out of the way, but it’s hanging around over the U.K.  so showers are around over the north, but nothing of significance in the SW.  Again a high of just 21c.

 

So, all in all, not bad at all. And temperatures consistent around 21c throughout.  But the GFS is still all over the place, it’s nowhere near coming to a final decision.  The other models are now in range of the festival and we’ll need to keep an eye on them so see what they come up with.

I'd take this in a heartbeat. No extremes either way. Perfect for the majority. 

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

2 hours ago, Alvoram said:

Wearing Jeans and a jumper now... Have been since getting back from Florida at the end of September last year.

This isn't a hot country, I've been to my fair share. I could easily 'cope' in 30-35c at the festival.

But I don't want to 'cope' and have to worry about how much water I'm drinking, how much shade I'm taking etc etc... I want to relax and enjoy it. So I'd rather it not be above 25c for multiple days in a row either. 

Yep. Same. And well put!

[Alvoram]

The ECMWF is still on the 00z run... 6z is outputting now, should be ready soon, hope it stays the same 🤞

[Sheffield Steve]

15 minutes ago, Dizzy2012 said:

Ok, I’ve read this thread for soooo long and I have found the courage to out myself and ask…

where are these forecasts from?

what do you mean by gfs, “the finger”??!!

whats 18z, 6z, 12z?

Any other acronyms I should be aware of? I’ve been around long enough to understand NFR NFC… been coming since 2008 😳😳

 

There are a multitude of sites which download the weather model output each day - netweather, wetterzentrale, theweatheroutlook, etc.   Then each of us interprets the models in whatever way we please, usually different from each other, hence the lively discussion..!

The finger, an expression which is much overused in this thread, is when the Azores High Pressure, usually present in the south North Atlantic every summer, spreads a finger of high pressure over the U.K. to give us settled, warm weather.

0z, 6z, etc refers to the time the computer model is processed.  6z means it’s 0600 Greenwich meantime, ie. 0700 British Summer Time.  The ‘z’ refers to the fact that the time is offset by zero(z) so exactly 0600 Greenwich meantime.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Sheffield Steve

[stopwn1981]

Stop using the GFS it’s a c**t. Use UKMO

[Sheffield Steve]

3 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Stop using the GFS it’s a c**t. Use UKMO

Yep, now the other models are coming in reliable range….  In terms of accuracy at this range, they rank:

1. ECMWF

2. UKMO

3. GFS

4. GEM

[dansy]

I’ve been packing for hot weather today (mid-high 20s) and now I might have to pack for cooler temps + rain?? It’s making choosing outfits a disaster. I guess I’ll do it all Tuesday.