The Weather Thread 2024

[Pinhead]

Happy Solstice!

[Sheffield Steve]

So that’s the UKMO and GFS wanting to bring the thundery low up from France on Wednesday/thursday.   This would be a very poor setup day… will be interesting to see if the ECM wants to agree in an hour or so…

 

[briddj]

Let's see if there's any good news this morning! The 00Z has rolled...

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

Small amount of rain in the early hours and then dry until Wednesday. Good news!

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Dry when gates op, temps of 19-20, but the rain is going to move up.

 

 

Torrential rain through Wednesday, highs of 20-22. Awful.

 

Overnight temps into Thursday of 15-16.

 

 

The low is pressure picture is worse, but can it fight back? Latest on the right.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Dry, rain misses, highs of just 17. Useless for drying Wednesday's rain.

 

Overnight into Friday, 13-14.

 

 

Similar pressure picture to the 18Z. Latest on the right.

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, temps recover to 20-21.

 

Overnight into Saturday, 13-14.

 

 

Definitely a better pressure picture on Friday, allowing the heat to build 3 degrees in better. Latest on the right.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

 

Completely dry, highs of 19-20.

 

Overnight into Sunday, 12-13.

 

 

A little better, but we need MORE. Latest on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 18.

 

Overnight into Monday, 9-10.

 

 

Not quite as good by Sunday, hence the drop back in the temperatures. Latest on the right.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

The rain on the Wednesday would be horrible and would definitely lead to a big churn up of the site, and it would be hard work for a couple of days until the temperatures recover.

 

The rest of the run is another improvement, with high pressure fighting back -- which shows it's all still to play for.

 

Can we lose that Wednesday rain and see the high show its strength in the 06Z? See you soon...

 

Edited June 21 by briddj

[AdrianH]

ECM has a similar scenario earlier on but then much worse after. It has another deeper low making inroads by Friday

[Jacko45]

Clear picture emerging, were in for a wet and cool one.

 

Gutting as the weather was gorgeous for the last week. 

[majormajormajor]

Seeing the forecasts are selfishly making me feel a bit better about having to give up our tickets this year. Still hoping for a dry one for y'all!

[Jacko45]

Just now, majormajormajor said:

Seeing the forecasts are selfishly making me feel a bit better about having to give up our tickets this year. Still hoping for a dry one for y'all!

 

It's not going to be dry by any means, but doesn't look a 'washout' 

[AdrianH]

GFS op run is an outlier (again) early on but nearly all the ensembles now have a drop in pressure from 25th-27th. Rain details yet to be confirmed - we could get lucky

[Sheffield Steve]

The ECM goes for a completely different solution from the GFS. It sticks an active area of low pressure over the U.K. for the second half of the festival giving us cool showery days. 
 

Just like last nights run, brings heavy showers through for those queuing…

 

 

But unlike the GFS has the rain move through Wednesday morning and a nice little ridge of high pressure moves across so that most of the day and then Thursday is dry…

 

 

it then wants to bring more heavy rain across during Thursday night…

 

 

and then for the rest of the festival, cool showery conditions prevail with the low right over the U.K.  

 

 

I think the one thing we can say is it isn’t going to be a completely dry festival but with the models diverging so much, the detail is impossible to nail down at this stage… 

 

 

Edited June 21 by Sheffield Steve

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

ECM is pretty much a worst case scenario. Wow, can’t believe how much this has gone to sh*t in 48 hours. 

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

ECM is pretty much a worst case scenario. Wow, can’t believe how much this has gone to sh*t in 48 hours. 

 

Mad isn't it, remember Wednesday we had two saying hot and dry throughout the festival.

 

Now it's moving towards a broad agreement of wet at times, cloudy and cool.

 

With potential of some longer periods of downpours. 

 

Think it's certainly confirmed as walking boots and jackets. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Gossip actually attracting a crowd bigger than a couple of dozen people because it's snowing outside

[briddj]

24 degrees on Tuesday in Pilton. 

 

And then right on cue.... 🤣😩🥹

[Spindles]

I'm still firmly in the it's gonna be reet camp.  

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

24 degrees on Tuesday in Pilton. 

 

And then right on cue.... 🤣😩🥹

 

I'd say it's unlucky, but it's just back to the norm of May/June so far.

 

This past week has been the outlier, actually nice weather. 

[FloopFiller]

Emily knew exactly what she was doing when she booked Coldplay. All her fault.

[briddj]

Barry Can't Swim? He'd better start learning. 😄

[CaledonianGonzo]

Met Office is still d@bbing up.

[Jacko45]

Are there ANY showing the nice high pressure and warm prevailing?

 

[AliceR]

You know it’s bad when even The Nal isn’t in here celebrating

[pigital]

2 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

Are there ANY showing the nice high pressure and warm prevailing?

 

iPhone weather not too bad. Cloudy and sunny around 20

[CaledonianGonzo]

4 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

Are there ANY showing the nice high pressure and warm prevailing?

 

Yes - the actual Met Office 

[Mark E. Spliff]

Over the past few pages, I've seen a few mentions of the fabled 'improved drainage' popping up again.  If you think there's some kind of magic technology that will stop a heavily-rained-on field turning to mud when cows or human trample it, you can nip out into your back garden or the local park with a bucket of water and do a thought-experiment, i.e. what magic technology would I need to install to make this very wet piece of ground turning to mud when trampled?  And have I see such magic technology installed on the fields of Glastonbury?

 

The 'improved drainage' is just an attempt to move standing water away from a few specific low-points on the site, e.g. the bottom of Pennards.  It won't prevent a mudbath in the event of heavy rain, and was never intended to.  Bring boots/wellies if you think that's what we're getting.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Yip.

 

Though that said there's now also surfeit of woodchip already laid out on the site over key points.

[Ayrshire Chris]

We’ve been here before, still in the realms of educated guesswork.  From now onI tend to look at the U.K. met office whether it’s Glastonbury or just our local forecast.