The Weather Thread 2024

[eatingglitter]

1 minute ago, tarw said:

It’s gone past wellies being sufficient sacrifice now. Waders and a full dry suit required now. 

I'll bring my 5:4:3

[CaledonianGonzo]

4 minutes ago, GordonMcG said:

We bought new waterproof hiking boots at the weekend and have next day delivery ready for wellies should the Monday forecasts suggest it.

 

 

 

You've got some work to do to break those in

[eatingglitter]

I bought gaiters, but blue ones because FASHUN

[GordonMcG]

4 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

 

You've got some work to do to break those in

Went to the effort of going to a proper outdoors shop for them so they are a really good fit. Wore them for a good while walking on Sunday and thankfully no issues at all!

[MEGABOWL]

As an Air Traffic Controller, my every working day depends on the weather so I know very well how inaccurate forecasts can be even an hour out. Still a chance it could be OK.

[eatingglitter]

8 minutes ago, Superscally said:

Don't get wellies WHATEVER. Gaiters, if you're worried.

Tbh I know this, literally inside and out the evils of wellies. I've seen the welly burns of my colleagues back in 2007... but I still panic about whether I need them. LOL

[Acid_Haze]

Maybe this is a good sign. Usually weather predictions are wrong at this stage. So it's a good thing it isn't predicting sun now, because it'd definitely change to rain by Wednesday 🙂

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

Finishing off my packing...

[kemosabe]

f**k.

[Guest]

Anyone bringing a canoe this year?

[mr mister]

So obviously predicting the weather weeks out is a nonsense , and this thread is a bit of fun in the main...

 

But... what's the general consensus on the day that sh*t gets real.

 

In the next 5 days leading to gates open, which is the 'oh, ok, this is actually happening' day? in terms of the weather being 95% locked in.

 

Is it still all to play for until, say, Sunday/ Monday?

[Colorblindjames]

Apple weather looks good, which is actually bad news as it’s always wrong. 

[The Nal]

People reading the forecasts this morning

 

[Thunderstruck]

I've just had a look at the metoffice Ensembles - they have there own set just like the other global models (GFS and ECMWF)

 

Main Points -

 

They show good agreement until 26 June for the development of the widely settled, warm period.

 

The ensembles diverge around 25 into 26 June as the trough development is not resolved. They clearly show a wide range of solutions for handling the early festival period (27 June) with a few big rainfall spikes > 20 mm indicating the thunderstorm risk most likely.

 

Others don't become as unsettled and a good number have very little rainfall at all.

 

All ensembles indicate post 27 show a recovery in pressure.

 

My money is on the shower risk Thursday but things quite rapidly improving into the festival weekend.

[Physical_graffiti]

So to summarise, basically we're still in the stage of......it could literally be anything. I know people need certainty in life but sorry, we're gonna have to live with this total uncertainty for now! And 'it could be anything' in June is better than 'it could be anything' in november, so basic maths means it's probably gonna be nice x

 

 

[Jacko45]

4 minutes ago, Acid_Haze said:

Maybe this is a good sign. Usually weather predictions are wrong at this stage. So it's a good thing it isn't predicting sun now, because it'd definitely change to rain by Wednesday 🙂

 

Last year at this stage they were exactly how it turned out sadly.

 

SURELY there's one out there giving a lovely finger? 

[Physical_graffiti]

3 minutes ago, mr mister said:

So obviously predicting the weather weeks out is a nonsense , and this thread is a bit of fun in the main...

 

But... what's the general consensus on the day that sh*t gets real.

 

In the next 5 days leading to gates open, which is the 'oh, ok, this is actually happening' day? in terms of the weather being 95% locked in.

 

Is it still all to play for until, say, Sunday/ Monday?

yes, and all to play for after then too! By Monday you can make a fairly decent stab at wednesday's weather

[eatingglitter]

We need Countryfile

[sedra]

24 minutes ago, eatingglitter said:

I've got two pairs of waterproof walking boots, waterproof trousers, waterproof poncho, waterproof rain jacket...

 

Do I add one more offering to the rain gods and order some decent wellies as well? 

Stick a pair of wellies in for good luck

[casablancakiwi]

9 minutes ago, Colorblindjames said:

Apple weather looks good, which is actually bad news as it’s always wrong. 

 

 I was once in the UAE, 40 odd degrees, the Apple weather app said it was raining.

Edited June 21, 2024 by casablancakiwi

[sedra]

So basically- it could be dry/wet/dry/ hot/warm/cool/cold/ damp 

Business as usual in the UK. 

 

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, sedra said:

So basically- it could be dry/wet/dry/ hot/warm/cool/cold/ damp 

Business as usual in the UK. 

 

 

Just about sums it up!

 

I tend to agree with the met office assessment though - the period is more likely to remain warm and settled vs some monster breakdown to cold and rain.

[Jacko45]

11 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I've just had a look at the metoffice Ensembles - they have there own set just like the other global models (GFS and ECMWF)

 

Main Points -

 

They show good agreement until 26 June for the development of the widely settled, warm period.

 

The ensembles diverge around 25 into 26 June as the trough development is not resolved. They clearly show a wide range of solutions for handling the early festival period (27 June) with a few big rainfall spikes > 20 mm indicating the thunderstorm risk most likely.

 

Others don't become as unsettled and a good number have very little rainfall at all.

 

All ensembles indicate post 27 show a recovery in pressure.

 

My money is on the shower risk Thursday but things quite rapidly improving into the festival weekend.

 

 

 

[steviewevie]

Not going but forecast looks alright to me...some rain but not a deluge, not too sunny, and good temperatures.

[ibilly99]

What is a realistic best case scenario - there will be some rain , it won't be biblical and the site will shake it off ? Is there a 50/50 for that ?