The Weather Thread 2024

[Stu H]

oh God, we're going to have an awful time. I might sell my ticket.

[Physical_graffiti]

Some vaguely interesting pages about accuracy of forecasts on Met Office site. Thought this sentence was particularly interesting - "Over the past 12 months 92% of our three hourly temperature forecasts have been accurate to within ± 2 °C on the current day."

 

So basically, even on the day, 8% of their 3 hourly predictions AREN'T accurate.

 

They also say the 1-2 day forecast is the detailed forecast for towns/specific areas, 3-5 day forecast is a general regional prediction, and 6-15 day broad UK predictions.

 

So we're essentially currently moving into pin the tail on the donkey territory for the wednesday.

 

From this I can only conclude - scorchio.

About our forecasts - Met Office

[ibilly99]

We are all deluded fanatics anyway so pre-festival we might as well just dream that it will be perfect - we are all dead in the long run anyway. I shall buy a gallon of suncream and a water gun to help out the people. Michael is on record that he likes wet ones as people move around more and see more as they are not lounging out in the sun enjoying music wafting over and can't be arsed to move on.

[Tiesto13]

6 minutes ago, ibilly99 said:

What is a realistic best case scenario - there will be some rain , it won't be biblical and the site will shake it off ? Is there a 50/50 for that ?

a realistic best case scenario is that there is zero rain and we have nice warm but not too hot temperatures.

 

That’s not the most likely outcome but it’s as reasonable a possibility as loads of rain/freezing cold temperatures.

 

Most likely is probably that it will be low 20’s with a bit of rain around.

[tomf3]

Pretty sure when I looked yesterday, today was meant to be wet all day, and now it's sunny and the forecast is clear all day with a tiny bit of rain tonight.

[Nobody Interesting]

@briddj - are you able to, for the future runs, add in wind direction and speed? Just so we all have something else to worry about of course..................... seriously though the wind here recently has been cold even though temps have been warmer hence asking 🙂

[AdrianH]

16 minutes ago, ibilly99 said:

What is a realistic best case scenario - there will be some rain , it won't be biblical and the site will shake it off ? Is there a 50/50 for that ?

 

Heavier rain misses the site Wednesday and we get a warm up towards the weekend. Feasible just about.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

Every year the worst bit of this thread is when the models don't look good, loads of people come in a) posting positive images of their favorite weather app based on outdated runs or b) saying 'cheer up, it's Glastonbury, don't let the weather affect you'. Cheers, I've been going for a quarter of a century, it'll obviously still be good but I'll tell you for nowt it's much better when you can sit down and wear trainers 😂

 

I'm choosing to believe that the last 48 hours of modeling is just going make the weekend switch back to dry and sunny all the more delicious. 

Edited June 21 by Glasto Weatherwatch

[Thunderstruck]

13 minutes ago, Physical_graffiti said:

Some vaguely interesting pages about accuracy of forecasts on Met Office site. Thought this sentence was particularly interesting - "Over the past 12 months 92% of our three hourly temperature forecasts have been accurate to within ± 2 °C on the current day."

 

So basically, even on the day, 8% of their 3 hourly predictions AREN'T accurate.

 

They also say the 1-2 day forecast is the detailed forecast for towns/specific areas, 3-5 day forecast is a general regional prediction, and 6-15 day broad UK predictions.

 

So we're essentially currently moving into pin the tail on the donkey territory for the wednesday.

 

From this I can only conclude - scorchio.

About our forecasts - Met Office

 

That's the mad thing about weather forecasting - you're literally trying to see into the future and that's fecking hard to do.

 

Genuinely your conclusion isn't even off the table at the moment.

[ibilly99]

2 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

 

Heavier rain misses the site Wednesday and we get a warm up towards the weekend. Feasible just about.

But no snow ?

[NotAnInsider]

The GFS has the jet stream doing a few fairly pronounced shifts and splits over the coming days; I don't think that's too easy to model in reliably.

 

I really want to see the Met Office's confidence index for the next 10 days but it isn't public facing. I suspect its quite low at the moment but hope the 14 day forecast they upload to the app later today might feature it.

[pauladam]

1 minute ago, ibilly99 said:

But no snow ?

I dont think he's done anything since Informer.....so should be ok

[behindthebunhouse]

35 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

Last year at this stage they were exactly how it turned out sadly.

 

SURELY there's one out there giving a lovely finger? 

Lmao no they weren't, come on man

 

This is from the Friday before gates opened 

 

[Sheffield Steve]

48 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

Be great to see the extended run...I feel like although this scenario threatens initial thundery showers it may just die off leaving us with fairly warm settled conditions. Thursday met office computerised output showing light shower risk and low 20s on Thursday - but by evening its Sunny again.

This is UKMO midday Thursday…quite a bit of rain from the south but, as you say, drying up later.  And hopefully higher pressure after that….
 

[devonhammer]

I'd be interested if there's a good source for the UK Met Office high-res data. Best I can find is this out to Wednesday am:

 

 

A lot of sites have the low res (even on the same site)

 

 

There's a big difference between the two

[Respectfatfrog]

if it can stay dry until we are in on Wednesday I can deal with it, queuing and setting up in the rain is not fun  

[4AssedMonkey]

Against the spirit of the thread, I know, but I just think the weather this time of year is difficult to predict at the best of times and is just particularly tricksy this year.

 

It's all over the place and many times recently, it's been way off on the actual day.  Tuesday this week the forecast in the morning said dry/warm, some cloud.  By lunchtime it said chance of rain in the afternoon.  What actually happened at 4:00pm was a biblical thunderstorm, the likes of which I've rarely seen, which dropped 30mm of rain in an hour.  All over by 6:00pm.  Madness.

[The Nal]

5 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

Against the spirit of the thread, I know, but I just think the weather this time of year is difficult to predict at the best of times and is just particularly tricksy this year.

 

It's all over the place and many times recently, it's been way off on the actual day.  Tuesday this week the forecast in the morning said dry/warm, some cloud.  By lunchtime it said chance of rain in the afternoon.  What actually happened at 4:00pm was a biblical thunderstorm, the likes of which I've rarely seen, which dropped 30mm of rain in an hour.  All over by 6:00pm.  Madness.

 

So you're saying that people posting sunny forecasts in April with "stick" beside it may not be accurate??

 

And actually, may be symptoms of utter insanity?

[4AssedMonkey]

For "utter insanity" read "excitement and wishful thinking" and you're spot on. 😉 

[Little Thief]

So is the current vibe definitely pack the wellies, or will robust walking boots prevail? I’ve got to pack today or tomorrow ideally as away until Tues. Coaching it too, so not the luxury of dump the wellies in the car and see what happens.

[Wurzelcat]

Ive just been reading from this time last year (ie the Friday before) and it looked far worse, but turned out alright in the end.

[devonhammer]

Just now, Little Thief said:

So is the current vibe definitely pack the wellies, or will robust walking boots prevail? I’ve got to pack today or tomorrow ideally as away until Tues. Coaching it too, so not the luxury of dump the wellies in the car and see what happens.

 

I always believe that robust walking boots is the right choice. Maybe with gaiters if it's really bad.

[Jack Ledger]

1 hour ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Every year the worst bit of this thread is when the models don't look good, loads of people come in a) posting positive images of their favorite weather app based on outdated runs or b) saying 'cheer up, it's Glastonbury, don't let the weather affect you'. Cheers, I've been going for a quarter of a century, it'll obviously still be good but I'll tell you for nowt it's much better when you can sit down and wear trainers 😂

 

I'm choosing to believe that the last 48 hours of modeling is just going make the weekend switch back to dry and sunny all the more delicious. 

This 🙂

[Respectfatfrog]

I own neither walking boots or wellies might have to do a quick run to sports direct 

[Festival Sounds Podcast]

1 minute ago, Respectfatfrog said:

I own neither walking boots or wellies might have to do a quick run to sports direct 

Don’t. Just pack sandals. Will be fine