The Weather Thread 2024

[losscorchio]

49 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

Most if not all runs since Weds night have gone for a much cooler and wetter picture.

 

Today we've moved towards more consistent heavy rain also.

 

It's not over but there's a genuinely rainier and colder pattern baked in now.

 

Yeah, it's basically beyond saving now. 

[Spingus]

1 minute ago, Jacko45 said:

 

Show us spingy

Praying on that Glastonbury bubble to ward off the 20% at least

[jarviscocker]

33 minutes ago, Glastonlocal said:

What's in the tea leaves in the late one tonight then briddj me lad?

Not good so far 😬

[phillyfaddle]

1 hour ago, devonhammer said:

Are you concerned about Horton Overland flow?

Too technical for me 🙃

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

GFS 18z is horrific, belting it down overnight into Thursday as well now, 100% mudbath conditions. That’s enough for today I think. 

[TheDayman]

I love rain & mud.

 

Can't wait.

[briddj]

18Z in short:

 

Pretty much dry Wednesday bar showers.

Thursday now a COMPLETE sh*t show.

Then dry all weekend Fri to Sun.

Temps: Fri 17, Sat 18-19, Sun 19-20

 

[jarviscocker]

Pretty awful Wednesday and Thursday, then basically dry the rest. Temps low too.

[gherkin8r]

Even Briddj can't be arsed any more 

 

What have we become?

Edited June 21 by gherkin8r

[rlandy95]

I truly feel like we're doing ourselves a diservice by relying on the GFS runs 😂

 

 

[briddj]

22 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

GFS 18z is horrific, belting it down overnight into Thursday as well now, 100% mudbath conditions. That’s enough for today I think. 

 

Calm down dear, it's only the 18Z. And it's changed completely from the 12Z.

[gazzared]

22 minutes ago, TheDayman said:

I love rain & mud.

 

Can't wait.

 

[JeniHimdrix]

This thread is a total rollercoaster and not a totally fun one, though totally addictive!

 

What I don't quite understand is why is the met office forecast is consistently at odds with these doom prophecies?! Even seemingly at odds with it's own raw model output from a few pages back?

 

At worst it's showing 30% chance of rain over Wednesday Thursday and Friday with a sunshine and clouds symbol. Am I wishful thinking/missing something?

 

To put it in context I always use the met office to decide whether or not to go out rock climbing or choose between venues and would not hesitate to chance a day's climbing given the current forecast on the met office website.

Edited June 21 by JeniHimdrix

[briddj]

16 minutes ago, jarviscocker said:

Pretty awful Wednesday and Thursday, then basically dry the rest. Temps low too.

 Weds ain't that bad, by new standards.

[jarviscocker]

Just now, briddj said:

 Weds ain't that bad, by new standards.

If we’re sacrificing a day, definitely rather Thursday than Wednesday. NFR though, please. 

[behindthebunhouse]

20 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

I truly feel like we're doing ourselves a diservice by relying on the GFS runs 😂

 

 

Exactly, it is all soothsaying and statistical woo-woo

[hboss]

10 minutes ago, JeniHimdrix said:

This thread is a total rollercoaster and not a totally fun one, though totally addictive!

 

What I don't quite understand is why is the met office forecast is consistently at odds with these doom prophecies?! Even seemingly at odds with it's own raw model output from a few pages back?

 

At worst it's showing 30% chance of rain over Wednesday Thursday and Friday with a sunshine and clouds symbol. Am I wishful thinking/missing something?

 

To put it in context I always use the met office to decide whether or not to go out rock climbing or choose between venues and would not hesitate to chance a day's climbing given the current forecast on the met office website.

Your totally right here. However, the met office always leaves it to the last minute before it updates. The models as agreed with many weather experts online are really unreliable right now as soo many models are saying different things, none of them are consistent. 

[RaphPH]

The hilarity of the heatwave kicking in again on Monday after festival 

[Rabocse]

This mornings run is very different again!

sending the low down in to Spain and keeping us dry on Wednesday. The models are really struggling with this setup and it’s still all to play for IMO 

[Rabocse]

Hmmm… showing a bit of rain later in the day Wednesday but at least dry for gates open. GFS looking better than ECM at this point 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

God this thread has fallen off a cliff...much like my 20 year school reunion last night!

[CaledonianGonzo]

Think I'd actually prefer to base my entire pre-festival mood on a 7 day out GFS run than go to a school reunion.

[stevieweevil]

Model runs are all over the place at the moment with no real confidence of which way things will go beyond Monday at the moment. Pretty much anything is still on the cards. Hang in there for now!

[CaledonianGonzo]

Twas ever thus.

[Euphoricape]

Big upgrade this morning.  Dry barring few showers Wednesday and Thursday. 

Edited June 22 by Euphoricape