The Weather Thread 2024

[JB3]

1 hour ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

God this thread has fallen off a cliff...much like my 20 year school reunion last night!

Forget the weather, I need to know about last night 🤔

[AdrianH]

Major change from the 12hz GFS. The initial low pressure on Wednesday goes south like it was toying with days ago and we get the hotter temperatures 

 

UKMO supports this scenario too - low pressure goes south

Edited June 22 by AdrianH

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

1 minute ago, JB3 said:

Forget the weather, I need to know about last night 🤔

Lol! Someone ended up needing CPR and then something kicked off with the police... Couldnt write it... 🤯 

[Aragorn]

6 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Big upgrade this morning.  Dry barring few showers Wednesday and Thursday. 

 

Hmmm GFS has showers Wednesday but Thursday looks grim

 

 

[AdrianH]

Will see what the ensembles and ECM say but if that initial feature is going south, it might open the doors for a completely dry and warm festival if that second low can be deflected north. 

[AliceR]

[Avalon_Fields]

17 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

Will see what the ensembles and ECM say but if that initial feature is going south, it might open the doors for a completely dry and warm festival if that second low can be deflected north. 

Sorry, no optimism allowed on this thread, it’s for masochists only don’t you know! 

[JB3]

25 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Lol! Someone ended up needing CPR and then something kicked off with the police... Couldnt write it... 🤯 

Hahaha, so the ex school colleagues have progressed and become leaders in society then?. Love it 😂

[Ayrshire Chris]

The met office, in which I trust, is tentatively showing an improvement on past forecasts.  🤞

[AdrianH]

16 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Sorry, no optimism allowed on this thread, it’s for masochists only don’t you know! 

 

Many apologies! - I didn't realise this thread was for suffering only!

[CaledonianGonzo]

2 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

The met office, in which I trust, is tentatively showing an improvement on past forecasts.  🤞

UKMO has been consistently stable

 

Edit: at least on the trial data

Edited June 22 by CaledonianGonzo

[Dave_c]

The Met office app looks swell until Friday, I'm going with that.

[AdrianH]

Very good morning runs.

 

GFS/ECM/UKMO and the rest of the smaller models have switched to a much more favourable situation on Wednesday (low pressure goes south) - dry and warm.

 

Whether this is a stay of execution remains to be seen as there is another deeper low behind it, but this is a huge step forward and if we get high pressure to build over us, that second low might go north keeping the festival dry.

Edited June 22 by AdrianH

[CaledonianGonzo]

3 minutes ago, Dave_c said:

The Met office app looks swell until Friday, I'm going with that.

If you flip onto the map view with the rainfall layer you can see a bit of high pressure protecting the UK from some nasty business coming in off the Atlantic.  Instaed, seminal NW European country Ireland take one for the team.

[NotAnInsider]

Honestly whilst looking at individual model runs is interesting, the Met Office folks have a tonne more information and skill that we do in interpreting them.

 

When it gets to the sort of messy situation we have at the moment that becomes quite important. I suspect they saw some of the jet stream output from the recent GFS that gave use some of the recent low pressure and decided it was unlikely to materialise, which the model itself is starting to correct.

 

I think we might risk a thundery breakdown when the short hot spell leaves us (which may/may not hit Worthy Farm) and the rest will be sunshine and showers.

Edited June 22 by NotAnInsider

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

This is much better situation this morning. GFS and UKMO aligning with the southern low having much less influence with high building again next weekend. ECM is better rainfall wise but is showing a low bringing rain in next weekend with rain Friday. 
 

But more agreement that Weds will be saved and potentially some signs models might be shifting towards UKMO, which is best of the lot! 

[mrfunk]

8 minutes ago, NotAnInsider said:

Honestly whilst looking at individual model runs is interesting, the Met Office folks have a tonne more information and skill that we do in interpreting them.

 

When it gets to the sort of messy situation we have at the moment that becomes quite important. I suspect they saw some of the jet stream output from the recent GFS that gave use some of the recent low pressure and decided it was unlikely to materialise, which the model itself is starting to correct.

 

I think we might risk a thundery breakdown when the short hot spell leaves us (which may/may not hit Worthy Farm) and the rest will be sunshine and showers.

I love your optimism. I’m still packing wellies 😉

[ibilly99]

7 minutes ago, NotAnInsider said:

Honestly whilst looking at individual model runs is interesting, the Met Office folks have a tonne more information and skill that we do in interpreting them.

 

When it gets to the sort of messy situation we have at the moment that becomes quite important. I suspect they saw some of the jet stream output from the recent GFS that gave use some of the recent low pressure and decided it was unlikely to materialise, which the model itself is starting to correct.

 

I think we might risk a thundery breakdown when the short hot spell leaves us (which may/may not hit Worthy Farm) and the rest will be sunshine and showers.

The Voice of Reason beware of false  prophets- I found a cure for covid during the lockdown based on my internet research but the buggers went with Pfizer instead - given today's Met Office report I would say we are bombproof. Glastonburies Are Go !

[CaledonianGonzo]

4 minutes ago, mrfunk said:

I love your optimism. I’m still packing wellies 😉

 

I wouldn't set foot on that farm without good footwear, regardless of the weather forecast.

[mrfunk]

6 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

 

I wouldn't set foot on that farm without good footwear, regardless of the weather forecast.

Completely agree.. I’m a boots and gaiters man.. but learnt over the years that even some of the best full leather hiking boots eventually give up the will to live after being saturated continuously in water, and eventually let the water in. So foot wear this year will be my Boots/Gaiters, wellies as backup, sliders for camp, and maybe an optimistic pair of sketchers (sponsored by the Met office 😁) .  I do wonder why we don’t trust the metoffice, this is there job? 

Edited June 22 by mrfunk

[Jacko45]

Wow feel sh*t this morning so it's nice to see some improvement after days of rubbish.

 

Hopefully this can HOLD but I await the next runs to be apocalyptic to be true to form.

[jezzer]

https://x.com/nickjf75/status/1804410413833949591?s=46

[briddj]

Right, let's hope we lose the horror Thursday on the 00Z!

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Completely dry through and highs of 21-22. Result!

 

 

Very, very light showers in the afternoon, highs of 26!

 

Temps overnight into Thursday of 17-18.

 

 

 

THURSDAY

 

There is some nasty rain around, but this is better than the last run and the worst goes further north.

 

And ... woah! Highs of 23-24! Massive upgrade!

 

Temps overnight into Friday of 14-15.

 

 

So, why the higher temperatures?

 

The pocket of low pressure has not developed to the south, though we need to watch that one in Spain, which has troubled us before. Latest on the right.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry and highs of 20-21, again good for any necessary drying.

 

Temps overnight into Saturday of 12.

 

 

 

This is a great picture! The low in Spain doesn't develop and the high appears to be building in! Latest on the right.

 

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Completely dry and highs of 20-21.

 

Temps overnight into Sunday of 11-12.

 

 

High pressure is winning! Latest on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

Completely dry and highs of 20-21.

 

Temps overnight into Monday of 11-12.

 

 

Just look at the difference in the pressure picture on the right!

 

 

SUMMARY

 

We're BACK IN THE GAME. Yes, there's the threat of some rain on the Thursday, but the worst is north of the site and these temperatures would allow drying.

 

This is a MASSIVE upgrade on the runs of the last few days. The low pressure doesn't build in, the temperatures stay nice and pleasant, and it's dry.

 

COME ON.

 

 

[Avalon_Fields]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Right, let's hope we lose the horror Thursday on the 00Z!

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Completely dry through and highs of 21-22. Result!

 

 

Very, very light showers in the afternoon, highs of 26!

 

Temps overnight into Thursday of 17-18.

 

 

 

THURSDAY

 

There is some nasty rain around, but this is better than the last run and the worst goes further north.

 

And ... woah! Highs of 23-24! Massive upgrade!

 

Temps overnight into Friday of 14-15.

 

 

So, why the higher temperatures?

 

The pocket of low pressure has not developed to the south, though we need to watch that one in Spain, which has troubled us before. Latest on the right.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry and highs of 20-21, again good for any necessary drying.

 

Temps overnight into Saturday of 12.

 

 

 

This is a great picture! The low in Spain doesn't develop and the high appears to be building in! Latest on the right.

 

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Completely dry and highs of 20-21.

 

Temps overnight into Sunday of 11-12.

 

 

High pressure is winning! Latest on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

Completely dry and highs of 20-21.

 

Temps overnight into Monday of 11-12.

 

 

Just look at the difference in the pressure picture on the right!

 

 

SUMMARY

 

We're BACK IN THE GAME. Yes, there's the threat of some rain on the Thursday, but the worst is north of the site and these temperatures would allow drying.

 

This is a MASSIVE upgrade on the runs of the last few days. The low pressure doesn't build in, the temperatures stay nice and pleasant, and it's dry.

 

COME ON.

 

 

Thank you weather Gods! 
 

And before I forget, irrespective of how this all turns out, massive thanks for your efforts and insights. 

[Cooter]

Praise the Lord!!