The Weather Thread 2024

[Jacko45]

1 hour ago, Nuthugger said:

f**k a duck

 

That articles now been retracted - The Pilton Forcefield can even infiltrate the media.

 

A source at the Met Office told i: “In short, no, the claims are not true. As is typical for forecasts made at this time of year, signals for prevailing weather patterns over the UK during summer are relatively weak.

 

No, the UK is not set for 50 days of rain despite wettest summer predictions

Forecasts had predicted summer 2024 would be the wettest since 1912

[Neil]

 set for '50 days of rain' in one of the wettest summers in over a hundred yearshttps://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk-set-for-50-days-of-rain-in-one-of-the-wettest-summers-in-over-a-hundred-years/

[Jacko45]

3 hours ago, Neil said:

 set for '50 days of rain' in one of the wettest summers in over a hundred yearshttps://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk-set-for-50-days-of-rain-in-one-of-the-wettest-summers-in-over-a-hundred-years/

 

Debunked just one post above. 

[uscore]

I've heard it's going to rain for 50 days in one of the wettest summers ever.

[gherkin8r]

4 hours ago, Neil said:

 set for '50 days of rain' in one of the wettest summers in over a hundred yearshttps://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk-set-for-50-days-of-rain-in-one-of-the-wettest-summers-in-over-a-hundred-years/

I mean surely after the 12 months we have just had it could only be the wettest summer for 1 year?

[thewomble]

Just looked back through our group chat and this time last year/throughout May it was full of worrying about the torrential rain, getting stressed about wellies etc.... and look how that turned out 🙂 I think it's going to be fine!

 

(Although saying that I have been looking for a new decent waterproof coat. Will also probably chuck wellies in the car this year, as it's just me on my own I don't need to worry about taking too much stuff 🤣)

[Sasperella2]

56 minutes ago, thewomble said:

Just looked back through our group chat and this time last year/throughout May it was full of worrying about the torrential rain, getting stressed about wellies etc.... and look how that turned out 🙂 I think it's going to be fine!

 

(Although saying that I have been looking for a new decent waterproof coat. Will also probably chuck wellies in the car this year, as it's just me on my own I don't need to worry about taking too much stuff 🤣)

And certainly for the last three glastonburys. I remember rushing out to buy thick socks and leggings the weekend before 2019 due to doomsday weather predictions, and a similar 'knife edge' in 2022.

 

But it has to rain at one of them soon...surely??? 

[Lycra]

5 hours ago, Neil said:

 set for '50 days of rain' in one of the wettest summers in over a hundred yearshttps://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk-set-for-50-days-of-rain-in-one-of-the-wettest-summers-in-over-a-hundred-years/

Given they can't correctly forecast for 7 days ahead it's too early to fret.

[CharlotteB]

They struggle to forecast what's happening in real time too. And that's not even really a forecast!

[faymondo]

Relax, Liam knows the score. 

Edited May 29 by faymondo

[Aragorn]

the latest precipitation ensembles from the GFS show only a few runs spiking.  The operational run shows very little rain barring 13th June, but only 2 runs agree with the op run for that day.  Anything past a week from now though is officially considered FI as in Fantasy Island.  😄

  

 

 

Edited May 29 by Aragorn

[4AssedMonkey]

1 hour ago, Sasperella2 said:

And certainly for the last three glastonburys. I remember rushing out to buy thick socks and leggings the weekend before 2019 due to doomsday weather predictions, and a similar 'knife edge' in 2022.

 

But it has to rain at one of them soon...surely??? 

 

Nope.  Please attend the NFR NFC thread for re-education.

[DareToDibble]

Trainers only again this year. Keep the faith.

[Thunderstruck]

The next 10 days 2 weeks seems to favour quite dry conditions on the farm. A blocking high centred just to the west of the UK followed by a switch to northerly winds. So while it won't be hot, it certainly favours dry.

 

 

[Thunderstruck]

9 minutes ago, DareToDibble said:

Trainers only again this year. Keep the faith.

I did this last year...nearly fecked up though with the shower on the Wednesday morning haha!

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, Thunderstruck said:

The next 10 days 2 weeks seems to favour quite dry conditions on the farm. A blocking high centred just to the west of the UK followed by a switch to northerly winds. So while it won't be hot, it certainly favours dry.

 

 

 

I've given up on any decent hot weather, its just rained for 18 months. 

[gooner1990]

I couldn't care less if its not hot I just want dry underfoot.

[Ayrshire Chris]

Good to see the sun shining on Pilton today. Forecast apart from tomorrow’s showers looking decent. A nice dry spell, bit of heat and a breeze will soon dry out the farm. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

On 5/29/2023 at 9:31 PM, Sheffield Steve said:

Hot off the press, the ECMWF Monday evening run is out.   For the 5th run in a row, it goes for a warmer than average festival week. So we can safely say it’s fairly confident in that forecast now.   This ties in with the CFSv2 above, showing high pressure over and to the north of the U.K.:

 

It backs off a little with its ‘wet’ theme and goes for an average week in terms of rainfall.  Which means some rain (green is wetter than average, no colour means average rainfall):

 

So to summarise, a warm week predicted but with some showers or a spell of rain somewhere along the way. This also ties in with the CFSv2 from Gav as above, because the high pressure is to our north, it could allow heavy/thundery showers to encroach from the south.    All to play for….

 

One year ago to the very day

[CR77]

1 hour ago, Sasperella2 said:

And certainly for the last three glastonburys. I remember rushing out to buy thick socks and leggings the weekend before 2019 due to doomsday weather predictions, and a similar 'knife edge' in 2022.

 

But it has to rain at one of them soon...surely??? 

 

On the opening day of the festival last year AccuWeather was still predicting cloudy conditions for all five days, with a lightning storm thrown in too!  And 9 days prior it was predicting rain for all five days.  Meanwhile the BBC was predicting four days of rain just 4 days before gates opened.

In 2022, a lightning storm was predicted for one of the days, plus another three days of light rain - and that was on the opening day of the festival!

 

Basically, no one knows... the forecasts will change constantly, but it's fun and all part of the build-up!


 

[balti-pie]

Ive just come back from a very muddy Bearded Theory, so i feel like i've taken one for the team and this will ensure an at least mostly dry Glastonbury this year. You'll need boots, and it might be a bit sticky at times, but wellies will remain in car boots and it'll be ok to sit down on the grass most of the time. You can thank me with snacks and beverages. 

[rlandy95]

 

35 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

 

One year ago to the very day

 

Still dont know anything about these charts but whatever this means I like it 

 

[gherkin8r]

2 hours ago, CharlotteB said:

They struggle to forecast what's happening in real time too. And that's not even really a forecast!

The BBC can't get the historic weather right most of the time 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Let the guesswork and fun begin !

[CharlotteB]

I'm sure they use the forecast as some sort of population control now, or to confuse everyone with disinformation to stop us rising up. Like, "oh, it's raining next week. Not a good time to rebel".