The Weather Thread 2024

[Jacko45]

In more positive news, this is incredible drying weather in the build up.

 

You'd imagine it'll be bone dry for Tuesday arrivals at least...

 

[AdrianH]

ECM has a plume (hot - high 20s/low 30s) scenario instead for the festival opening  - something in between would be nice!

 

Should have a bit more clarity by mid week hopefully.

[rlandy95]

I fancy the ECM over the GFS a little more 😂

[Drfoxxx]

Long live the ECM ❤️

[rlandy95]

3 minutes ago, Drfoxxx said:

Long live the ECM ❤️

 

 

[Drfoxxx]

2 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

 

 

Very good 😂

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

This is almost identical to last year - the Monday of the week before we had a much less good Operational GFS run in amongst otherwise pretty positive forecasts. 

 

Plenty of time for it to change but I think ten days out this is better than I hoped for back in May when it wouldn't stop raining. Ever. All to play for!

Edited June 17 by Glasto Weatherwatch

[a.shep]

Just bought a new poncho so it will inevitably be a dry festival, taken one for the team.

[NotAnInsider]

I don't think I've ECMWF ensemble forecasts looking this positive this far out ever before. There is one run showing significant rain on the Sunday of the festival... and other than that it's dry or the typical sunshine and showers we've had the last few years. 

 

The GFS however is showing zero consistency after the end of this week - so I suspect we're going to have big variances run to run and the full rollercoaster experience, by the Friday of the festival there are some huge swings between runs. It's likely that being the reason why the Met Office are being non committal in their long range forecast.

[Dave_c]

I'm going to buy a rain jacket today to take one for the team too

[AdrianH]

The difference seems to be on how the main trough in the Atlantic is handled. The GFS has a series of small low pressure systems getting ejected off it which pass directly through the UK where as the ECM has these initially riding over us to the north and then to the south (which pumps up the hot air towards us).

 

Not long to the 6hz GFS - see if it sticks to its guns!

[kalifire]

I packed my rain jacket but also some after-sun, so my sacrifices and affronts to the weather gods somewhat cancel each other out.

[4AssedMonkey]

27 minutes ago, NotAnInsider said:

I don't think I've ECMWF ensemble forecasts looking this positive this far out ever before. There is one run showing significant rain on the Sunday of the festival... and other than that it's dry or the typical sunshine and showers we've had the last few years. 

 

The GFS however is showing zero consistency after the end of this week - so I suspect we're going to have big variances run to run and the full rollercoaster experience, by the Friday of the festival there are some huge swings between runs. It's likely that being the reason why the Met Office are being non committal in their long range forecast.

 

12 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

The difference seems to be on how the main trough in the Atlantic is handled. The GFS has a series of small low pressure systems getting ejected off it which pass directly through the UK where as the ECM has these initially riding over us to the north and then to the south (which pumps up the hot air towards us).

 

Not long to the 6hz GFS - see if it sticks to its guns!

 

So, you could say it's on a knife edge.....

 

 

 

.....like every year!

[kemosabe]

I've always said I'm a huge ECM fan, supported them through thick and thin. Wouldn't trust anyone else with my weather. 

[Jacko45]

3 minutes ago, kemosabe said:

I've always said I'm a huge ECM fan, supported them through thick and thin. Wouldn't trust anyone else with my weather. 

 

Are you a @Sheffield Steve ultra or @briddj loyal?

[Wallace]

Not liking the look of this 😐

[Jacko45]

3 minutes ago, Wallace said:

Not liking the look of this 😐

 

It may well be correct - but BBC is notoriously inaccurate these days.

 

It's also trying to predict 11 days - That's pretty much total guesswork.

[parsonjack]

7 minutes ago, Wallace said:

Not liking the look of this 😐

You know the rules.... anything other than perfect is to be simply denied and regarded as witchcraft.

[Alvoram]

So for anybody that does both, how does this year's Download compare to an average wet and muddy Glasto? Not the bad bad years, just an average wet and muddy one?

Honestly I didn't think it was too bad... Definitely glad I had the grip of walking boots, the way some people were slipping around in cheap wellies, but other than that, and taking longer to walk around, it was fine. 

[gigpusher]

6 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

So for anybody that does both, how does this year's Download compare to an average wet and muddy Glasto? Not the bad bad years, just an average wet and muddy one?

Honestly I didn't think it was too bad... Definitely glad I had the grip of walking boots, the way some people were slipping around in cheap wellies, but other than that, and taking longer to walk around, it was fine. 

@Superscallyprobably the best man to do a comparison for you.

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

It's absolutely glorious in Somerset today. Hardly a cloud in the sky, slight breeze and dare I say it, some warmth! Won't be hot enough for some but this would be perfect festival weather for me

[eatingglitter]

Here are the steps I have taken:
Spent £40 a brand new poncho
Bought a dry robe with waterproofing as a secondary option
Bought new waterproof walking boots in case my OTHER pair of waterproof walking boots get too wet
Have brought out the waterproof trousers
Have waterproofed our poptop roof that we won't even be using
Have told all my friends they need to buy waterproof gear 
Have several pairs of gaiters saved in my notes folder to order.

I also buried a sausage.

Is this sufficient? Do the Gods want more? I can offer more if needed?

[NotAnInsider]

19 minutes ago, Wallace said:

Not liking the look of this 😐

The BBC's use of weather symbols is mad really.

 

BIG BLACK RAIN CLOUD for a <40% chance of light rain.

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

Just now, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

It's absolutely glorious in Somerset today. Hardly a cloud in the sky, slight breeze and dare I say it, some warmth! Won't be hot enough for some but this would be perfect festival weather for me

 

Although, looking at the webcam, it does appear to be cloudier over the farm than it is 20 miles away. Still lovely though

[The Nal]

21 minutes ago, Wallace said:

Not liking the look of this 😐

 

Accuweather gone to absolute sh*t aswell

 

 

This is very concerning. 

 

Very worrying developments.