The Weather Thread 2024

[Jacko45]

8 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

I blame myself for this mornings extinction level event charts. Last night I told my wife I was only gonna bring trainers. I can only apologise 

 

[LinvoyPrimus]

48 minutes ago, briddj said:

After the 00Z gave us the F.E.A.R., what will become of us on the 06Z? Let's find out!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

No rain of any note whatsover and won't be a problem for the ground.

 

Dry with temps of 19-22 through to Wednesday.

 

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Yes! Back to dry for gates open! Massive improvement.

 

 

 

Highs of 20-22 on a lovely, dry Wednesday.

 

 

You can see that high pressure is in a much better place on this right (most recent on the right.)

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 21-23.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 22-24.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 23-25.

 

 

Much improved pressure picture on Saturday, with the pocket of lower pressure pushed out. Most recent on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

A tiny dribble of rain around in the evening. But highs again of 23-25.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Hooray! A return to a great forecast.

 

But hold onto your hats, there's still a definite KNIFE EDGE over low pressure vs. high pressure.

 

WE ARE SO BACK.

[Beerqueen]

3 hours ago, a.shep said:

Just bought a new poncho so it will inevitably be a dry festival, taken one for the team.

Me too!  Everyone can thank us later.

[EavisAintDead]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

 

12 at 3am on the Thursday morning, 14 the other days, then 17 at 3am on Monday morning.

17 sounds like a very warm time but very happy if the others come through! 

[Stu H]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

After the 00Z gave us the F.E.A.R., what will become of us on the 06Z? Let's find out!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

No rain of any note whatsover and won't be a problem for the ground.

 

Dry with temps of 19-22 through to Wednesday.

 

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Yes! Back to dry for gates open! Massive improvement.

 

 

 

Highs of 20-22 on a lovely, dry Wednesday.

 

 

You can see that high pressure is in a much better place on this right (most recent on the right.)

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 21-23.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 22-24.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 23-25.

 

 

Much improved pressure picture on Saturday, with the pocket of lower pressure pushed out. Most recent on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

A tiny dribble of rain around in the evening. But highs again of 23-25.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Hooray! A return to a great forecast.

 

But hold onto your hats, there's still a definite KNIFE EDGE over low pressure vs. high pressure.

 

 

I just wee wee'd a little bit.
I now expect major disappointment.

 

[turricandan]

Just dont check the BBC weather forecast! .... looks beautiful up till the wednesday then we get the cloud and rain symbol every day!

Edited June 17 by turricandan

[CaledonianGonzo]

BBC doesn't use the Met Office any more. I think its provider is based I  Belgium or something.

[Jacko45]

DUST!!

 

[Alvoram]

2 hours ago, Superscally said:

 

Yeah, it wasn't so bad. Its just tiring being on feet all day. Number one thing is if it's wet, have a chair if you need to take breaks and obviously be considerate in your use of em - people seemed to be at Download.

This wasn't as bad as 2016

Cheers bud. Parts of the site got quite deep on Sunday, and it turned quite sticky after the sun in parts, but I honestly thought it was fine. So many people moaning about it though. 🙈😂

 

I think this is probably (touch wood) the very worst we could get at Glasto now, unless the models start forecasting some freak storm on their runs in the next few days… 

 

 

Also, with the sun on Sunday, higher parts of the site, that caught the sun all day, were already like this in the evening!!! 
 

 

Sat up there on nice dry ground watching Corey Taylor and Machine Head. 🙂 

[Ayrshire Chris]

10 minutes ago, turricandan said:

Just dont check the BBC weather forecast! .... looks beautiful up till the wednesday then we get the cloud and rain symbol every day!

They also say the % chance of any rain is around 20-30% so there’s a crumb of comfort there🤞😊

[devonhammer]

BBC might be coming onside from this article (or at least their reporters who might well be ignoring their new forecaster):

 

Is summer finally about to turn up? - BBC Weather

[Superscally]

18 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Cheers bud. Parts of the site got quite deep on Sunday, and it turned quite sticky after the sun in parts, but I honestly thought it was fine. So many people moaning about it though. 🙈😂

 

I think this is probably (touch wood) the very worst we could get at Glasto now, unless the models start forecasting some freak storm on their runs in the next few days… 

 

 

Also, with the sun on Sunday, higher parts of the site, that caught the sun all day, were already like this in the evening!!! 
 

 

Sat up there on nice dry ground watching Corey Taylor and Machine Head. 🙂 

Excellent. All of this. Especially the fact that Corey must be feeling better.

[nikkic]

2 hours ago, briddj said:

After the 00Z gave us the F.E.A.R., what will become of us on the 06Z? Let's find out!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

No rain of any note whatsover and won't be a problem for the ground.

 

Dry with temps of 19-22 through to Wednesday.

 

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Yes! Back to dry for gates open! Massive improvement.

 

 

 

Highs of 20-22 on a lovely, dry Wednesday.

 

 

You can see that high pressure is in a much better place on this right (most recent on the right.)

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 21-23.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 22-24.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 23-25.

 

 

Much improved pressure picture on Saturday, with the pocket of lower pressure pushed out. Most recent on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

A tiny dribble of rain around in the evening. But highs again of 23-25.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Hooray! A return to a great forecast.

 

But hold onto your hats, there's still a definite KNIFE EDGE over low pressure vs. high pressure.

You love to see it. 

[Aragorn]

 

 

The operational run is somewhat more optimistic than the mean of all runs for the opening of the festival, the precipitation chart shows a number of runs are interested in bringing some rain in.  

 

 

[NotAnInsider]

The met office are slowly getting on board..

 

Quote

A change to cloudier weather with outbreaks of rain, these most prevalent in the west of the UK, is expected to be well underway by the start of the forecast period. However, this may not last too long, as it continues to look increasingly likely that a drier, warmer, and settled spell will begin to develop later this coming weekend, and into the following week. There is a small chance that this could persist for much of the rest of the period, turning increasingly hot, however by mid-next week a large range of outcomes which also include a small chance of colder, more unsettled weather also become possible. Generally settled, and warmer than average conditions appear most likely.

 

Generally settled, and warmer than average conditions appear most likely.

[Alvoram]

31 minutes ago, Superscally said:

Excellent. All of this. Especially the fact that Corey must be feeling better.

Hopefully he's hitting a good place. Corey was my surprise of the day... Brilliant. Never really got into Slipknot, outside of the obvious more popular songs... But my god that voice is incredible!!! 

[compactdisc]

Could someone please explain the difference between the operational run and all of the others?

Edited June 17 by compactdisc
manners

[balti-pie]

39 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Hopefully he's hitting a good place. Corey was my surprise of the day... Brilliant. Never really got into Slipknot, outside of the obvious more popular songs... But my god that voice is incredible!!! 

Offtopic, so soz everyone else, but how were Machine Head? I bloody love a bit of Machine Head! 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

9 minutes ago, compactdisc said:

Could someone please explain the difference between the operational run and all of the others?

As I understand it, the GFS Operational is a single forecast, the Mean is the average of multiple runs (with multiple different outcomes) so the more extreme elements are removed from the picture. It's basically the average of the forecasts. 

[devonhammer]

15 minutes ago, compactdisc said:

Could someone please explain the difference between the operational run and all of the others?

 

GFS Operational Runs are high-resolution weather forecasting models that use a single set of initial conditions to predict weather. They are the main models used for forecasting.

GFS Ensemble Runs are multiple forecasts run together but with slightly different initial conditions. This approach helps to account for uncertainties in the weather prediction process by showing a range of possible outcomes.

 

If the operational run gets a low pressure off by 10 miles then this could cause a spiral as forecast after forecast compound the mistake (a forecast every 4 hours with the next based on the previous). What we want is agreement between the various runs.

[devonhammer]

8 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

As I understand it, the GFS Operational is a single forecast, the Mean is the average of multiple runs (with multiple different outcomes) so the more extreme elements are removed from the picture. It's basically the average of the forecasts. 

 

That's it, but the mean is the average of the low-res runs. The operational is the only high-res run.

[Beerqueen]

 

...but I think it's looking good?  (though a bit too hot for me if I'm being picky)

[AdrianH]

7 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

As I understand it, the GFS Operational is a single forecast, the Mean is the average of multiple runs (with multiple different outcomes) so the more extreme elements are removed from the picture. It's basically the average of the forecasts. 

 

My understanding is that the GFS operational runs at a higher resolution than it's ensembles. Each ensemble has a slightly different starting criteria which then can lead to a variety of different outcomes. The mean is just an average of all of the runs put together so is useful in seeing the overall trend.

[Alvoram]

24 minutes ago, balti-pie said:

Offtopic, so soz everyone else, but how were Machine Head? I bloody love a bit of Machine Head! 

I got dragged there kicking and screaming... I'm not a fan... HOWEVER, the person that dragged me there is a huge fan and was having an absolute blast, and the performance seemed good to me. I just enjoyed the fact he was enjoying it so much. He did say the playlist could have been better for him personally, and was really pissed off they hadn't played Halo at first, but they came back and did that, so all was forgiven. (Halo is great btw, even I can think that.) It was the most lively I'd seen him all day, despite the fact we were right at the back, so it was good to see.  

I can ask him which songs he wanted that weren't played if nobody else replies? 

Edited June 17 by Alvoram

[Nobody Interesting]

5 hours ago, The Nal said:

YR have also updated now with rain coming in. Was dry previously. 

 

These are worrying times. 

 

 

and YR updates to prove, if any proof was needed, that this is one big roller coaster we are all on.