The Weather Thread 2024

[devonhammer]

Glad everyone is so interested. Can we carry on the weather forecasting discussion?

 

As another point resolution is what you'd think i.e. the size of the grids on the ground.

 

The ECMWF has a higher resolution than GFS, and Met Office higher than ECMWF hence better accuracy.

 

This might be useful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

Edited June 17 by devonhammer

[Tiesto13]

1 hour ago, Aragorn said:

 

 

The operational run is somewhat more optimistic than the mean of all runs for the opening of the festival, the precipitation chart shows a number of runs are interested in bringing some rain in.  

 

 

 

That yellow run looks interesting.

[devonhammer]

4 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

and YR updates to prove, if any proof was needed, that this is one big roller coaster we are all on.

YR is Norweigan and is the best forecaster if you're going to a festival in Scandinavia:

 

"The calculation of the weather’s development is made in a 3D grid. The squares in this grid are 2.5 kilometers wide for the Scandinavian region and around 9 kilometers for the rest of the world."

Weather forecasts on Yr - how are they made? – Yr help and information

Edited June 17 by devonhammer

[SighMo]

20 minutes ago, Tiesto13 said:

 

That yellow run looks interesting.

It really does. 
 

why?🙃

[Ayrshire Chris]

5 minutes ago, SighMo said:

It really does. 
 

why?🙃

Yellow run? Could mean pissing down😉😊

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Yellow run? Could mean pissing down😉😊

Or Coldplay 

[4AssedMonkey]

27 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

Glad everyone is so interested. Can we carry on the weather forecasting discussion?

 

As another point resolution is what you'd think i.e. the size of the grids on the ground.

 

The ECMWF has a higher resolution than GFS, and Met Office higher than ECMWF hence better accuracy.

 

This might be useful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

 

At the risk of going full geek on the science here, so you're saying that resolution means smaller grid areas and hence better accuracy on a micro level - i.e. c. 100 forecast data points as opposed to maybe 25 in a given area?  And the operational run uses the high resolution "micro" data, whereas the mean is an extrapolation of models using lower resolution?

[Blisterpack]

1 minute ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

 

At the risk of going full geek on the science here.....                                                                                                                                                         

It was a risk and I'm afraid it's now an issue....

[devonhammer]

22 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

 

At the risk of going full geek on the science here, so you're saying that resolution means smaller grid areas and hence better accuracy on a micro level - i.e. c. 100 forecast data points as opposed to maybe 25 in a given area?  And the operational run uses the high resolution "micro" data, whereas the mean is an extrapolation of models using lower resolution?

 

In a word, YES

[devonhammer]

25 minutes ago, Blisterpack said:

It was a risk and I'm afraid it's now an issue....

Never get in an argument with a monkey that has 4 asses

Edited June 17 by devonhammer

[4AssedMonkey]

Just now, devonhammer said:

 

In a word, YES

 

Cheers.  Understanding increased. 👍

[gherkin8r]

Can we get off science and back to wild speculation, pointlessly agonizing over each individual run and overreacting to any change.

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

It’s at this point I’m really really missing @pilton digger& @deebeedoobeewity the anti science thread. 

[briddj]

Right then. After a chink of light in the 06Z, how will the 12Z treat us?

 

Let's dive in!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

This weekend is now completely dry, no rain of any note all the way through to gates open.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Dry for gates open with very pleasant temperatures of 17-18.

 

Completely dry during the day with highs of 21-22.

 

Overnight temps into Thurs, 12-13.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 24.

 

Overnight temps into Fri, 15.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 25-26.

 

Overnight temps into Sat, 17.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Ignore the bit of blue (nod to Peter Kay) that's so miniscule it wouldn't even be noticed. It's dry, with highs of 25-26 again.

 

Overnight temps into Sun, 14.

 

 

High pressure watch? Yes! More dominant with the low pushed back out over Greenland by the high pressure.

 

SUNDAY

 

Pressure drops slightly, so temperatures down to a high of 20. But completely dry.

 

Overnight temps into Mon, 10.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A fantastic run, with no rain but perhaps too warm for Friday and Saturday?

 

But never mind that, there's nothing to be scared of in this run.... Will it continue in the morning?

 

 

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

A bobby dazzler.  A 2022 line-up of a run.

[Euphoricape]

 

 

[kemosabe]

f**k that run earlier today with the rain. Absolutely loser of a weather forecast.

Edited June 17 by kemosabe

[Olshansky]

stick! 

[Jacko45]

Not even close to letting myself get excited, it's coaster season baby. 

[AliceR]

Ran out of upvotes but this is excellent!

[TGCarr]

20 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right then. After a chink of light in the 06Z, how will the 12Z treat us?

 

Let's dive in!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

This weekend is now completely dry, no rain of any note all the way through to gates open.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Dry for gates open with very pleasant temperatures of 17-18.

 

Completely dry during the day with highs of 21-22.

 

Overnight temps into Thurs, 12-13.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 24.

 

Overnight temps into Fri, 15.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 25-26.

 

Overnight temps into Sat, 17.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Ignore the bit of blue (nod to Peter Kay) that's so miniscule it wouldn't even be noticed. It's dry, with highs of 25-26 again.

 

Overnight temps into Sun, 14.

 

 

High pressure watch? Yes! More dominant with the low pushed back out over Greenland by the high pressure.

 

SUNDAY

 

Pressure drops slightly, so temperatures down to a high of 20. But completely dry.

 

Overnight temps into Mon, 10.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A fantastic run, with no rain but perhaps too warm for Friday and Saturday?

 

But never mind that, there's nothing to be scared of in this run.... Will it continue in the morning?

 

 

 

Screaming into my pillow 

[CaledonianGonzo]

16 minutes ago, kemosabe said:

f**k that run earlier today with the rain. Absolutely loser of a weather forecast.

 

Aright 2024 lineup-er

[Drew3232]

19 minutes ago, kemosabe said:

f**k that run earlier today with the rain. Absolutely loser of a weather forecast.

My thoughts exactly. What a whiny little bitch of a forecast.

[Mich1268]

1 hour ago, gherkin8r said:

Can we get off science and back to wild speculation, pointlessly agonizing over each individual run and overreacting to any change.

Yeah, but you are forgetting if C equals IZ combined with a slow overall pattern of yellow and x2. Oh, and don't forget the possibility of measure 2 overriding a slow downturn on episcopal fronts. All in all we could be looking at fair to middling? (I jest. I love the science weather people. Just don't understand it. Love to all. I mean it) 

[TGCarr]

https://x.com/thesnowdreamer/status/1802757421309300863?s=46&t=jJHQ3xsIs4TJjqXjXHmKvQ

 

 

looking great!

Edited June 17 by TGCarr