The Weather Thread 2024

[Pinhead]

We really won't actually know until next Mon tbh, but it's encouraging that the trend is for improvement and stability.

[Nobody Interesting]

2 hours ago, devonhammer said:

YR is Norweigan and is the best forecaster if you're going to a festival in Scandinavia:

 

"The calculation of the weather’s development is made in a 3D grid. The squares in this grid are 2.5 kilometers wide for the Scandinavian region and around 9 kilometers for the rest of the world."

Weather forecasts on Yr - how are they made? – Yr help and information

 

YR is the forecast of choice for walkers/climbers in many parts of the UK which is how I first found it. It tends to be the most accurate for more remote areas.

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

Yippeeeee! Stick! 🤞🏼

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

Stick 

[Colorblindjames]

The main thing is the run up is dry. 2016 was a sh*t show because the site was already very damp. 

[Aragorn]

The good news is the operational is less out of whack with other runs on the 12z ensembles

 

I look forward to the classic pub run, 18z. 

 

 

Edited June 17 by Aragorn

[Sheffield Steve]

Bit if a change from the ECM in the 12z run.  Rather than build high pressure to the east, it builds a significant high to the west of the country and then starts to drift it across the U.K.    This sequence starts on Monday through to Thursday.   Dry and warm(ish) all the way, and if that high goes where it looks like it will, the dry weather will last at least into the weekend… we shall see in the morning..

 

[chazthehoon]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

Right then. After a chink of light in the 06Z, how will the 12Z treat us?

 

Let's dive in!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

This weekend is now completely dry, no rain of any note all the way through to gates open.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Dry for gates open with very pleasant temperatures of 17-18.

 

Completely dry during the day with highs of 21-22.

 

Overnight temps into Thurs, 12-13.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 24.

 

Overnight temps into Fri, 15.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 25-26.

 

Overnight temps into Sat, 17.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Ignore the bit of blue (nod to Peter Kay) that's so miniscule it wouldn't even be noticed. It's dry, with highs of 25-26 again.

 

Overnight temps into Sun, 14.

 

 

High pressure watch? Yes! More dominant with the low pushed back out over Greenland by the high pressure.

 

SUNDAY

 

Pressure drops slightly, so temperatures down to a high of 20. But completely dry.

 

Overnight temps into Mon, 10.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A fantastic run, with no rain but perhaps too warm for Friday and Saturday?

 

But never mind that, there's nothing to be scared of in this run.... Will it continue in the morning?

 

 

 

 

[Sheffield Steve]

..and the GEM is having none of this optimism, with less high pressure around, bringing rain in overnight Wednesday/Thursday … no consistency with the models at all at this stage…

 

 

 

[briddj]

Think we all know the GEM talks out of its arse.

[Drew3232]

Only last week I saw the GEM sucking off a goat. Honest.

[Ayrshire Chris]

How’s this for a forecast!  Searching through all the forecasts you can find anything from cold and wet to this. Just shows it’s all educated guesswork until next week.

 

[Franky]

5 hours ago, briddj said:

Right then. After a chink of light in the 06Z, how will the 12Z treat us?

 

Let's dive in!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

This weekend is now completely dry, no rain of any note all the way through to gates open.

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Dry for gates open with very pleasant temperatures of 17-18.

 

Completely dry during the day with highs of 21-22.

 

Overnight temps into Thurs, 12-13.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 24.

 

Overnight temps into Fri, 15.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 25-26.

 

Overnight temps into Sat, 17.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Ignore the bit of blue (nod to Peter Kay) that's so miniscule it wouldn't even be noticed. It's dry, with highs of 25-26 again.

 

Overnight temps into Sun, 14.

 

 

High pressure watch? Yes! More dominant with the low pushed back out over Greenland by the high pressure.

 

SUNDAY

 

Pressure drops slightly, so temperatures down to a high of 20. But completely dry.

 

Overnight temps into Mon, 10.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A fantastic run, with no rain but perhaps too warm for Friday and Saturday?

 

But never mind that, there's nothing to be scared of in this run.... Will it continue in the morning?

 

 

 

Nailed it !!! 
 

Although tweak the temp just a little. Then it’s perfect. 

[Franky]

1 hour ago, Drew3232 said:

Only last week I saw the GEM sucking off a goat. Honest.

Brilliant. Surely quote of the day 🤷‍♂️

[Aragorn]

The 18z ensembles are not particularly pleasant viewing so will await the 00z ones

[CaledonianGonzo]

Ffs

[Euphoricape]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The 18z ensembles are not particularly pleasant viewing so will await the 00z ones

Seems like the midnight and 6am runs always go with an alternative outcome to the daytime charts. No doubt we will be back in business come midday.

[AdrianH]

Well on the positive side, temperatures are looking pleasant! - On the down side, we seem to have a meandering low slowly spinning around our vicinity which brings rain at various points

[briddj]

So, a couple of good runs, but what has happened overnight? Let's play darts!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

The last two runs have seen a bit more rain Friday night into Saturday, though as it's dry through to gates open (with highs of 20-21, 22-23 and 22-23) there's absolutely nothing to worry about.

 

WEDNESDAY & GATES OPEN

 

Completely dry when gates open, highs of 17-18.

 

And dry for Wednesday, with highs of 22-23.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 22-23.

 

 

How about the high pressure?

 

The latest run (on the right) is better than the previous, but high pressure is not as dominant as we've seen.

 

FRIDAY

 

There looks to be a small amount of rain overnight to the south of Glastonbury, some of it heavy, so one to monitor. But the worst not on the sight as it stands.

 

During the day, completely dry with highs of 19-20, underlining the weaker high on this run.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Tiny amount of rain around, but again highs of 19-20.

 

As you can see, the overnight 18Z run was a bit of a horror, with a blob of low pressure sat over the UK. This one is an improvement, but high pressure fails to build in at any point.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

But more rain around today in the afternoon and evening, but it's not heavy - though annoying. Highs of 19-20 again.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Not a fantastic run, but not a bad run either. Many people will be happy with the 19-20 temperatures. Personally, I think that's a couple of degrees too low.

 

The low winning over the high is also not something we want to see, as it could go further downhill.

 

Overnight temperatures due generally hold up at around 15.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 18 by briddj

[jonnyisRFC]

11 minutes ago, briddj said:

So, a couple of good runs, but what has happened overnight? Let's play darts!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

The last two runs have seen a bit more rain Friday night into Saturday, though as it's dry through to gates open (with highs of 20-21, 22-23 and 22-23) there's absolutely nothing to worry about.

 

WEDNESDAY & GATES OPEN

 

Completely dry when gates open, highs of 17-18.

 

And dry for Wednesday, with highs of 22-23.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 22-23.

 

 

How about the high pressure?

 

The latest run (on the right) is better than the previous, but high pressure is not as dominant as we've seen.

 

FRIDAY

 

There looks to be a small amount of rain overnight to the south of Glastonbury, some of it heavy, so one to monitor. But the worst not on the sight as it stands.

 

During the day, completely dry with highs of 19-20, underlining the weaker high on this run.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Tiny amount of rain around, but again highs of 19-20.

 

As you can see, the overnight 18Z run was a bit of a horror, with a blob of low pressure sat over the UK. This one is an improvement, but high pressure fails to build in at any point.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

But more rain around today in the afternoon and evening, but it's not heavy - though annoying. Highs of 19-20 again.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Not a fantastic run, but not a bad run either. Many people will be happy with the 19-20 temperatures. Personally, I think that's a couple of degrees too low.

 

The low winning over the high is also not something we want to see, as it could go further downhill.

 

Overnight temperatures due generally hold up at around 15.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’d take that! Apart from the Sunday it’s absolutely perfect for me. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

BBC weather has flipped from showery yesterday to a decent forecast this morning.  So as usual no one really knows!

[gherkin8r]

All still looking good! 

[Jacko45]

39 minutes ago, briddj said:

So, a couple of good runs, but what has happened overnight? Let's play darts!

 

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

 

The last two runs have seen a bit more rain Friday night into Saturday, though as it's dry through to gates open (with highs of 20-21, 22-23 and 22-23) there's absolutely nothing to worry about.

 

WEDNESDAY & GATES OPEN

 

Completely dry when gates open, highs of 17-18.

 

And dry for Wednesday, with highs of 22-23.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 22-23.

 

 

How about the high pressure?

 

The latest run (on the right) is better than the previous, but high pressure is not as dominant as we've seen.

 

FRIDAY

 

There looks to be a small amount of rain overnight to the south of Glastonbury, some of it heavy, so one to monitor. But the worst not on the sight as it stands.

 

During the day, completely dry with highs of 19-20, underlining the weaker high on this run.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Tiny amount of rain around, but again highs of 19-20.

 

As you can see, the overnight 18Z run was a bit of a horror, with a blob of low pressure sat over the UK. This one is an improvement, but high pressure fails to build in at any point.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

But more rain around today in the afternoon and evening, but it's not heavy - though annoying. Highs of 19-20 again.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Not a fantastic run, but not a bad run either. Many people will be happy with the 19-20 temperatures. Personally, I think that's a couple of degrees too low.

 

The low winning over the high is also not something we want to see, as it could go further downhill.

 

Overnight temperatures due generally hold up at around 15.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is it getting encouraging that even our 'not great' forecasts are very positive?

 

I'm with you @briddj a couple of degrees higher would be nice as in the shade and certainly in the evening that'll feel pretty chilly.

 

But still can't be hugely disappointed with that run.

[CanWeRest]

Weather looking good, yeah? Good access to the site at least. We'll have to wait a bit to see if we get a good exit, but I feel like I can cope with a bit of rain during.

[Sheffield Steve]

The midnight run of the ECMWF continues its theme of warm dry weather, at least until the Friday.  It still wants to keep the high firmly fixed to our west, with a northerly flow, but with the strong sunshine at this time of year temperatures would still be into the low 20s.  An excellent run…