The Weather Thread 2024

[thewomble]

Everyday I check this thread, everyday I'm confused by it all, everyday I leave thinking I'm sure it will all be fine 🌞🌞🌞

 

 

 

 

[Jacko45]

2 minutes ago, thewomble said:

Everyday I check this thread, everyday I'm confused by it all, everyday I leave thinking I'm sure it will all be fine 🌞🌞🌞

 

 

 

 

 

I hope so, but the last few forecasts coming into agreement aren't good.

 

A joke we've had 6 days in the 20's and it could be back down to 16c. 

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

Just now, Jacko45 said:

 

I hope so, but the last few forecasts coming into agreement aren't good.

 

A joke we've had 6 days in the 20's and it could be back down to 16c. 

That’s weather Jack 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Thunderstruck]

No point stressing about the operational GFS this morning.

 

First thing is to wait for the ECMWF ensembles - but looking at the GFS set there is absolutely no agreement, they're all over the place.

[NotAnInsider]

It's all about probabilities at this stage don't look at individual runs, but across runs and across models.

The GFS op doesn't have much support. It might be the start of a wider trend that is then picked up, or it could just be a mad outlier. If the operational was more like the control then we would be looking at a lovely festival.

[Chip Batch]

I hate this thread but can't stop looking 😧

[AdrianH]

Whilst that low pressure is being modelled all over the place, it could still go either way. All we know is that it is likely going to be present but the route it takes will be critical to what weather we get in the UK.

 

The models are definitely struggling with it - I say we've got another 24-48 hours maybe before it's path gets nailed down for the start of the festival.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

No point stressing about the operational GFS this morning.

 

First thing is to wait for the ECMWF ensembles - but looking at the GFS set there is absolutely no agreement, they're all over the place.

 

With a name like yours, you should be banned from this thread 🙂

[Thunderstruck]

1 minute ago, Ommadawn said:

 

With a name like yours, you should be banned from this thread 🙂

 

I bloody love thunderstorms...just not at Glastonbury! Although 2014 (I think?) was pretty cool.

[Jacko45]

In more positive news, look at the site. 

 

Stunning

 

[bennyboi]

9 minutes ago, Chip Batch said:

I hate this thread but can't stop looking 😧

the car crash thread 

[charlierc]

9 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

Whilst that low pressure is being modelled all over the place, it could still go either way. All we know is that it is likely going to be present but the route it takes will be critical to what weather we get in the UK.

 

The models are definitely struggling with it - I say we've got another 24-48 hours maybe before it's path gets nailed down for the start of the festival.

Sounds like the weather could still be in flux even before I go to Cardiff to see Foo Fighters on Tuesday, and could be the distinction between whether they go for roof open or closed.

[CaledonianGonzo]

19 minutes ago, LinvoyPrimus said:

2022 and (particularly) 2019 were still quite changeable right up until the day before.

 

Im 2022 there were thunderstorms all over the shop but luckily they passed north of the site up the Severn estuary.  You could see them off in the distance from Worthy View.  South Wales was flooded the same weekend.

[NotAnInsider]

3 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

 

Im 2022 there were thunderstorms all over the shop but luckily they passed north of the site up the Severn estuary.  You could see them off in the distance from Worthy View.  South Wales was flooded the same weekend.

It rained heavily and bath and west too. Mate staying there text me saying the weather was sh*t and he was going nowhere whilst it was blue sky and sun on site.

[Helsbels]

1 hour ago, Jacko45 said:

 

That is a f**king stinker LOL 

 

That'd be mud city.

My mates reckon this was posted by someone who didn't get a ticket as its that pessimistic.

[The Nal]

YR has turned into a puddle of poo

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, NotAnInsider said:

It rained heavily and bath and west too. Mate staying there text me saying the weather was sh*t and he was going nowhere whilst it was blue sky and sun on site.

This phenomenon is known as the Pilton Forcefield.  However, it's very much a last resort defence 

[NotAnInsider]

It looks like, as with the GFS, the 00z ECM operational run was one of the more pessimistic and below the mean pressure wise. Plenty of clusters showing a chance of fine weather so its a wait and see if the ops have latched onto something that will develop in other runs or not.

 

We're heading towards sunshine and showers. Same as it ever was.

[Avalon_Fields]

30 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

 

With a name like yours, you should be banned from this thread 🙂

Speaking of names, I’ve rediscovered Ommadawn, what a brilliant album it is! 

[Nobody Interesting]

12 hours ago Friday was 28 degrees to 30 degrees and wall to wall sunshine.
Now it is 15 degrees and rain most of the day.

It will be different again later and different again tomorrow....................

2024 really is the year of clueless forecasts

[kemosabe]

46 minutes ago, Mrbish82 said:

I've always said how much I respect the accuracy of the default Android weather app with forecasts provided by weather.com, in my experience it rarely gets things wrong.

 

I've heard it said by many many people 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

In case anyone is interested, a quick comparison of where we were at this stage prior to last few festivals. This looks v similar to 2022. Main take out which we all know – ECM / UKMO are better indicators at this stage. 

 

I think our current pattern is set, it’s a question of how disruptive the low is and whether it can be limited to a weak front of showery rain. 

 

2023

Prediction at this point: Dry festival with possibility of showers early on. Broad model agreement. 

Eventual outcome: Pretty much this, sharp shower Weds and 20 mins drizzle Friday but otherwise perfect. 

 

2022

Prediction at this point: GFS showing hot start to festival giving way to low pressure with heavy rain Friday. ECM and UKMO showing a less worse version of that. So what we have now basically, as also the previous few days had showed settled warm weather and we were all throwing ourselves off bridges at the GFS runs got worse. 

Eventual outcome: Great festival, an hour of drizzle Sat am is all I can remember. But there were some close calls with big storms just missing us. 

 

2019

Prediction at this point: Models in total divergence, having previously agreed that it would be a mudbath the week before. ECM at this point was showing warm and settled, GFS showing disaster. Models moved into agreement over the weekend to a good Spanish plume fingering heatwave, with possible thunderstorms.  

Eventual outcome: Thunderstorms never arrived although we dodged some biblical localised showers on the Thursday. Dry festival but with Saturday sunburn hell. 

 

[devonhammer]

UK Met Office starting to come into range. This is more accurate than ECM which is more accurate than GFS or YR.NO, but doesn't mess about with long range guessing:

 

Thu 20th: Sunny, dry

Fri 21st: Cloudy and overnight rain.

Sat 22nd: Sunny intervals, dry

Sun 23rd: Overcast changing to sunny intervals by early evening, dry

Mon 24th: Overcast changing to sunny by early evening, dry.

Tue 25th: Sunny, dry.

Wed 26th: Sunny, dry.

 

[Drfoxxx]

55 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

I hope so, but the last few forecasts coming into agreement aren't good.

 

A joke we've had 6 days in the 20's and it could be back down to 16c. 

 

Probably change another 20 times before the weekend as well by the way it's going at the moment - I've stopped taking too much notice now till this weekend, although still be refreshing this thread no doubt for updates ha!

[The Nal]

Sawdusty saying the ground is soft over the railway line.