The Weather Thread 2024

[rlandy95]

Seems as though the jetstream is being a bit of a player into this too, a huge swathe of high pressure on the US east cost seems to be powering the jetstream into overdrive and pushing low pressure systems towards us more quickly. 

[Trunks1993]

[Garrypp]

@briddj where is the update? i can't see it on this page...

[CaledonianGonzo]

For those folk having a conniption, it seems like it's due to rain tomorrow night on the farm.  That was only predicted for the first time today 

[DCIFF23]

10 minutes ago, behindthebunhouse said:

I remember in 2022 at about this time, a couple days before gates, the weather thread was raging on with daytime temperatures of 12C predicted on the GFS. The Nal was doing his very irritating thing and some poor sod was getting very upset and clearly having a bit of a moment. A few days later we were sitting in blazing sunshine outside the Brothers Bar. Every year the same thing.

 

It's a fun little ritual but all these models, no matter how sophisticated and snazzy, are little more than pseudoscience at this stage. You might as well be throwing spaghetti at a wall. 

Is this true? Does this genuinely happen most years or are you trying to keep the faith?

[NotAnInsider]

Honestly the differences between the last 3 GFS runs are kind of hilarious - anything after Tuesday is very uncertain at the moment.

 

It's worth pointing out that this time last week across the different models it was looking like a 75% chance of this coming weekend being unsettled and around or below average temperatures and worries Worthy Farm would be a swamp. Now there is good agreement of the complete opposite - nice useable weather.

[TiZuff]

1 minute ago, DCIFF23 said:

Is this true? Does this genuinely happen most years or are you trying to keep the faith?

i remember last year telling people to pack waterproofs a week before, its all just guess work until mon (for wed / thurs) and tues (fri sat)

[cb4747]

Overnight temps of around 10 are totally unacceptable. I want to speak to the manager. 

[devonhammer]

9 minutes ago, Garrypp said:

@briddj where is the update? i can't see it on this page...

Go back one page

[LinvoyPrimus]

Seeing all the low pressure appearing out of nowhere...

 

[behindthebunhouse]

7 minutes ago, DCIFF23 said:

Is this true? Does this genuinely happen most years or are you trying to keep the faith?

Yes, every single time without fail

[AdrianH]

Looking at the ensembles - we can be pretty certain of the pattern up until Tuesday now.

 

After that there is a big scatter of outcomes though only a few maintain high pressure so we'd do well to remain totally settled for the entire festival but that doesn't necessarily mean mud bath conditions. A shift of 50 miles one way or another could be the difference between a monsoon and scattered showers.

[behindthebunhouse]

 

2 minutes ago, behindthebunhouse said:

Yes, every single time without fail

In 15 years of attending this festival and keeping up with this thread in the weeks before, I have never known it to be anything other than a feverish rollercoaster of drivel until the festival's actually in full swing (and even then, forecasts often bear little resemblance to reality a couple of hours later). You might as well ask one of the Mystic Meg fortune tellers in the Green Fields; her guess would be as good as these GFS charts 

Edited June 20 by behindthebunhouse

[devonhammer]

7 minutes ago, DCIFF23 said:

Is this true? Does this genuinely happen most years or are you trying to keep the faith?

 

This genuinely happens every year.

 

There's a group of us who understand meteorology and know with absolute certainty that you can't predict the weather for more than four or five days. We then try to predict it for much longer than this with the same level of success as someone trying to predict next year's winner of Eurovision.

[rlandy95]

2 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

 

This genuinely happens every year.

 

There's a group of us who understand meteorology and know with absolute certainty that you can't predict the weather for more than four or five days. We then try to predict it for much longer than this with the same level of success as someone trying to predict next year's winner of Eurovision.

 

Exactly this. What we see today will be widly different to what were seeing on Monday. 

[DCIFF23]

3 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

 

This genuinely happens every year.

 

There's a group of us who understand meteorology and know with absolute certainty that you can't predict the weather for more than four or five days. We then try to predict it for much longer than this with the same level of success as someone trying to predict next year's winner of Eurovision.

With reference to the answers above, thank you also. 

 

This makes me feel a lot better. 

 

Few people on the thread v negative, assuming they're wind ups or not going - still doesnt stop me refreshing every half hour mind ahaha

[briddj]

-

Edited June 20 by briddj

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, DCIFF23 said:

With reference to the answers above, thank you also. 

 

This makes me feel a lot better. 

 

Few people on the thread v negative, assuming they're wind ups or not going - still doesnt stop me refreshing every half hour mind ahaha

 

I'm genuinely not trying to be negative, the vibes were immaculate start of the week.

 

It's just numerous runs from different sources are now predicting a much cooler / wetter festival disappointingly.  

[briddj]

  

20 minutes ago, Garrypp said:

@briddj where is the update? i can't see it on this page...

 

Of course it posted at the BOTTOM OF THE PREVIOUS PAGE. d*ck.

[devonhammer]

1 minute ago, DCIFF23 said:

With reference to the answers above, thank you also. 

 

This makes me feel a lot better. 

 

Few people on the thread v negative, assuming they're wind ups or not going - still doesnt stop me refreshing every half hour mind ahaha

 

Ignore The Nal. He does it every year as a joke, which is fine, but if this is your 1st year, you wouldn't know to ignore him.

[LinvoyPrimus]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Of course it posted at the BOTTOM OF THE PREVIOUS PAGE. d*ck.

 

This is my favourite subplot of this whole thread, tbh.

[briddj]

21 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

For those folk having a conniption, it seems like it's due to rain tomorrow night on the farm.  That was only predicted for the first time today 

 

Nah it's been in quite a few runs.

Edited June 20 by briddj

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, devonhammer said:

 

Ignore The Nal. He does it every year as a joke, which is fine, but if this is your 1st year, you wouldn't know to ignore him.

This 100% . 

[Garrypp]

14 minutes ago, briddj said:

  

 

Of course it posted at the BOTTOM OF THE PREVIOUS PAGE. d*ck.

couldn't help myself - sorry. Love your work xx

[DCIFF23]

7 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

I'm genuinely not trying to be negative, the vibes were immaculate start of the week.

 

It's just numerous runs from different sources are now predicting a much cooler / wetter festival disappointingly.  

Surely as a past go-er - as everyone has confirmed - you're accustomed to ignoring these runs until a closer date?