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kalifire

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  On 1/15/2025 at 2:43 PM, kaosmark2 said:

I've not been following closely, but isn't the "pressure" on Reeves mostly just manufactured by a bored media and the fact growth hasn't happened yet? She's not done anything in particular right?

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Couldn't agree more with this. I genuinely don't think she's put a foot wrong. If the markets react in a certain way, then that's the way it is. We're in a deep hole of sh*t and there are certain things she has to do to get us out of it, either that or keep digging. 

 

The reason the markets are reacting poorly is because of what has come before and forced Reeves to do what she's done. We're in for short-term hell and long-term growth (in my opinion), and that was always advertised by Labour.

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  On 1/15/2025 at 2:43 PM, kaosmark2 said:

I've not been following closely, but isn't the "pressure" on Reeves mostly just manufactured by a bored media and the fact growth hasn't happened yet? She's not done anything in particular right?

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I think a few factors...she seems to be calling the shots on fiscal policy as Starmer doesn't get it...so pre election tax promises, the winter fuel payment thing, a budget that is unpopular with businesses and farmers, the employer NI increase which is potentially a problem for growth, employment, cost of living etc., zero growth and possible recession when they've been banging on about importance of growth, and the whole recent bond yields thing eating to a limited headroom meaning possible tax rises or spending cuts required so she meets her fiscal rules and doesn't upset markets anymore...that budget was a big gamble in a way, and so far not paying off...have to hope the money spent helps.

But, yields are down now, something to do with US inflation...infact it all seems to be what happens in US and with Trump pretty much dictates how our economy is going to be over next parliament, which is a bit sh*t.

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  On 1/15/2025 at 2:43 PM, kaosmark2 said:

I've not been following closely, but isn't the "pressure" on Reeves mostly just manufactured by a bored media and the fact growth hasn't happened yet? She's not done anything in particular right?

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along with the Rachel from accounts bollocks thats been whipped up by certain media to undermine her 

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  On 1/15/2025 at 3:03 PM, steviewevie said:

Maybe...growth is just not going to happen...something broke in 2008, and with all the cuts + brexit + covid maybe it's just too damaged.

Or maybe we'll be saved by AI.

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definately think some reversal or slow return to EU alignment will help us and is being ignored , its a shed load of money for the economy 

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  On 1/15/2025 at 2:55 PM, steviewevie said:

I think a few factors...she seems to be calling the shots on fiscal policy as Starmer doesn't get it...so pre election tax promises, the winter fuel payment thing, a budget that is unpopular with businesses and farmers, the employer NI increase which is potentially a problem for growth, employment, cost of living etc., zero growth and possible recession when they've been banging on about importance of growth, and the whole recent bond yields thing eating to a limited headroom meaning possible tax rises or spending cuts required so she meets her fiscal rules and doesn't upset markets anymore...that budget was a big gamble in a way, and so far not paying off...have to hope the money spent helps.

But, yields are down now, something to do with US inflation...infact it all seems to be what happens in US and with Trump pretty much dictates how our economy is going to be over next parliament, which is a bit sh*t.

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I don't think that budget was a gamble, I think it was boringly predictably bland. I think any talk of it being a "gamble" is media trying to hype up a very normal and pretty uninteresting budget into something to talk about.

 

Trump's impact on our economy is pretty scary yeah. But I don't think Reeves has done anything dramatically wrong. Uninspiring sure, but it's a centre-right bland cabinet anyway? Whoever would replace her wouldn't exactly be the radical excitement that'd spur something.

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  On 1/15/2025 at 3:13 PM, kaosmark2 said:

I don't think that budget was a gamble, I think it was boringly predictably bland. I think any talk of it being a "gamble" is media trying to hype up a very normal and pretty uninteresting budget into something to talk about.

 

Trump's impact on our economy is pretty scary yeah. But I don't think Reeves has done anything dramatically wrong. Uninspiring sure, but it's a centre-right bland cabinet anyway? Whoever would replace her wouldn't exactly be the radical excitement that'd spur something.

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Changing fiscal rules to allow much higher borrowing in the hope that will lead to growth is a pretty big gamble, especially after Truss. Having such a small headroom also a big gamble, and could argue so was increasing employer NI 

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  On 1/15/2025 at 3:13 PM, kaosmark2 said:

I don't think that budget was a gamble, I think it was boringly predictably bland. I think any talk of it being a "gamble" is media trying to hype up a very normal and pretty uninteresting budget into something to talk about.

 

Trump's impact on our economy is pretty scary yeah. But I don't think Reeves has done anything dramatically wrong. Uninspiring sure, but it's a centre-right bland cabinet anyway? Whoever would replace her wouldn't exactly be the radical excitement that'd spur something.

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and maybe you don't think it's left wing or radical enough...because it never is right? But increasing minimum wage and new workers rights, pay deals for public sector workers,  £40bn tax rises on businesses and wealth to spend on NHS. and then increasing borrowing to invest in infrastructure, buildings, industry...is kind of old labour. Not sure what you want, nationalise everything and UBI and co-op farms? Could argue it may well have been too dramatic and it's going to f**k us up.

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Alot will depend on the March budget i think. Suggestions she's looking to make £3 billion of cuts to disability benefits.

 

The issue is though the yield on UK debt did start raising after the budget, you can see it clearly on the charts and now the extra interest payments have dwarfed all the tax rises she made. Unless something drastic happens she's either going to have to make cuts or come back for more money. We are still unwinding covid QE at the same time as extra borrowing and there simply isn't the appetite the buy that amount of UK debt.

 

Of course Reeves ( and Lizz Truss) wouldn't have looked so sh*t if it wasn't for covid. The blase attitude at the time of "you can repair an economy you can't bring people back to life" now doesnt appear as simple.

Edited by lost
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  On 1/15/2025 at 4:56 PM, lost said:

Alot will depend on the March budget i think. Suggestions she's looking to make £3 billion of cuts to disability benefits.

 

The issue is though the yield on UK debt did start raising after the budget, you can see it clearly on the charts and now the extra interest payments have dwarfed all the tax rises she made. Unless something drastic happens she's either going to have to make cuts or come back for more money. We are still unwinding covid QE at the same time as extra borrowing and there simply isn't the appetite the buy that amount of UK debt.

 

Of course Reeves ( and Lizz Truss) wouldn't have looked so sh*t if it wasn't for covid. The blase attitude at the time of "you can repair an economy you can't bring people back to life" now doesnt appear as simple.

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it isn't covid affecting the yield though, but the global inflation that followed...and it seems that yield has stayed high since Truss.

Obviously the size of debt increased under covid, you can blame Rishi for that, I was always for letting it rip.

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  On 1/15/2025 at 5:11 PM, steviewevie said:

it isn't covid affecting the yield though, but the global inflation that followed...

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the swiss 10 year pays 0.42 percent ours is 10 times that. People want to buy swiss debt, they don't want ours or see it 10 times riskier.

Edited by lost
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  On 1/15/2025 at 5:26 PM, lost said:

 

So when the Tories are in its domestic and when labour are in its global 👍

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Yes. Because it's true.

Ish.

TBF to poor old Truss she didn't cause all the inflation and interest rate rises that followed, that was global...but she did make UK more vulnerable to the bond markets after a loss of trust. How quickly her and Kwarteng were removed and the policies reversed shows that.

So this is why Reeves budget was a big risk in fudging/changing fiscal rules to borrow more, and initially markets were kind of ok with it, but now global stuff driven by Trump and tariffs and uncertainty is spooking the markets especially against countries with large debts like us.

Not saying she's innocent, as I say she gambled, and so far it isn't paying off....but she hasn't f**ked it like Truss, and she/we are victim to global turbulence at moment.

Just today inflation down a bit, borrowing costs have fallen, and maybe crisis over. Maybe.

Edited by steviewevie
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