International Politics

[steviewevie]

Ultimately Israel's deterrence is to show those who want to destroy them that they don't f**k around and they will go in there and destroy them first. Kill one of us, we will kill one hundred of you. Want to kill one of us, we will kill one hundred of you to warn you against that. Might work in short term, might even work in medium term, has kind of worked so far...but surely it isn't sustainable. 

If I was Iran I would be busy building nukes.

[mattiloy]

Netanyahu is on the record time and again, decades ago, and recently, about his desire for a one state solution (greater israel) and the ethnic cleansing needed to facilitate it. The attacks gave him the perfect excuse.

 

The Israeli govt are religious fundamentalists with a 3000 year old axe to grind against people who they feel descend from those who drove their ancestors out, when actually the modern day inhabitants of lebanon and palestine have probably got far more dna in common with those very same ancestors.

 

Land grab based on fairytales enabled by an imperial superpower. Colonialism in its truest form. Manifest destiny.

[mattiloy]

As for the escalation specifically- a realisation gaza was unwinnable, political pressures at home and abroad- netanyahu wanted by courts at home and abroad, need to stay in office and need a win so big that he’s off the hook for his fraud = blow up the pagers, bomb hezbollah to bits. Maybe he hoped Iran would refrain from responding but he’s a risk taker and now we’re here. 

[lazyred]

7 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

As for the escalation specifically- a realisation gaza was unwinnable, political pressures at home and abroad- netanyahu wanted by courts at home and abroad, need to stay in office and need a win so big that he’s off the hook for his fraud = blow up the pagers, bomb hezbollah to bits. Maybe he hoped Iran would refrain from responding but he’s a risk taker and now we’re here. 

Iran are the desperate risk takers in all this. Israel had recently agreed treaties for recognition and trade with Morocco, UAE, Bahrain and Sudan. They were months away from a similar big deal with the Saudis. Iran used their proxies to stop this. They now find themselves having to intervene directly and that won't end well for them.

 

[steviewevie]

35 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Netanyahu is on the record time and again, decades ago, and recently, about his desire for a one state solution (greater israel) and the ethnic cleansing needed to facilitate it. The attacks gave him the perfect excuse.

 

The Israeli govt are religious fundamentalists with a 3000 year old axe to grind against people who they feel descend from those who drove their ancestors out, when actually the modern day inhabitants of lebanon and palestine have probably got far more dna in common with those very same ancestors.

 

Land grab based on fairytales enabled by an imperial superpower. Colonialism in its truest form. Manifest destiny.

or they wanted a Jewish state after centuries of antisemitism/pogroms/genocide in europe and elsewhere...and now they have this jewish state they want to protect it from those that want it gone.

[Neil]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Biden doesn't want to get involved in a messy war in middle east just before an election, although he isn't standing so maybe he doesn't give a sh*t 

its not too messy to bomb terrhan., still where it goes from there could get messy.

 

the yanks wanna hit iran more than they wanted to hit saddam. been wanting to, since they kidnapped the yanks, (1976?)

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, Neil said:

its not too messy to bomb terrhan., still where it goes from there could get messy.

 

the yanks wanna hit iran more than they wanted to hit saddam. been wanting to, since they kidnapped the yanks, (1976?)

maybe they do...or maybe they don't want to trigger yet more of a wider war and f**k up oil prices etc

[mattiloy]

43 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

or they wanted a Jewish state after centuries of antisemitism/pogroms/genocide in europe and elsewhere...and now they have this jewish state they want to protect it from those that want it gone.

 

They got a jewish state and they weren’t satisfied with it. The only way to achieve security is via a lasting peace that involves concessions (ie palestinian statehood). They have rejected all reasonable proposals that suggest ceding territory.

 

This forever war is about expansionism, not statehood and not security.

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

 

They got a jewish state and they weren’t satisfied with it. The only way to achieve security is via a lasting peace that involves concessions (ie palestinian statehood). They have rejected all reasonable proposals that suggest ceding territory.

 

This forever war is about expansionism, not statehood and not security.

Yes, not disagreeing with the expansionism...settlers in West Bank and what some in Israeli govt say..but at same time Iran and it's proxies want to destroy Israel, whether there is a Palestinian state or not. Gaza was obviously not part of a free Palestinian state in that it did not have control of it's borders, but Israel were not making moves to take it, infact they had demolished it's own settlers there, and Gaza did have some autonomy, had education, jobs, health care etc...but Hamas attacked and killed a thousand Israelis in a barbaric way to provoke Israel..and here we are, they were definitely provoked. But still doesn't look like Israel wants to take outright Gaza, but they want to still control it's borders and do not want Hamas to remain for their own security, this is obviously unacceptable to Hamas and so it goes on.

West Bank is another matter. 

Anyway, a Palestinian state is a necessary if there ever is to be peace, but that means Iran and it's proxies and Palestinian groups need to accept Israel.

Edited October 2 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

meanwhile whilst focus is on Lebanon and Iran...

Israeli strikes on southern Gaza kill 51, says Hamas-run health ministry - BBC News

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

could argue the way that Israel has carried out it's response to the attacks the last 12 months has f**ked US/West global dominance possibly permanently. Netanyahu is a c**t obviously, but Biden and western leaders including Starmer carry a lot of responsibility. Especially Biden though, what a fail.

Edited October 5 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

7th October anniversary. Barbarity and lack of humanity from both sides. A total disaster for Gaza and it's citizens. The world feared escalation but didn't do enough to stop it.

[Crazyfool01]

On 10/6/2024 at 9:35 AM, steviewevie said:

 

Shocking that .... hadn't quite realised the uk role .... gonna be Starmers Iraq ? honestly cant believe weve not stepped away a la France 

[steviewevie]

34 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

Shocking that .... hadn't quite realised the uk role .... gonna be Starmers Iraq ? honestly cant believe weve not stepped away a la France 

Nah. Well, probably way too early...but not the same really, way more complex and nuanced and we're not directly involved. This govt have done a few things different to the last, reinstalled funds to UNRWA, said ICC could go after Netanyahu, blocked some weapon supplies. The last one is the most controversial, got criticised by both sides...not enough or a bad move, US not happy about it...but even if we blocked all supplies probably wouldn't make any difference...it's the US that holds all the cards. Biden has failed in his attempts to get Netanyahu to stop, whatever carrot or stick he tried to use didn't work....and now US election means nothing is going to happen. If Harris gets in maybe there will be a tougher policy against Israel, maybe. If Trump gets in, who knows...maybe Netanyahu will agree to stop for some more Abraham accord type stuff, maybe Trump will say go take West Bank I won't stand in your way.

[steviewevie]

Plus..hardly a consensus amongst UK population...

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Nah. Well, probably way too early...but not the same really, way more complex and nuanced and we're not directly involved. This govt have done a few things different to the last, reinstalled funds to UNRWA, said ICC could go after Netanyahu, blocked some weapon supplies. The last one is the most controversial, got criticised by both sides...not enough or a bad move, US not happy about it...but even if we blocked all supplies probably wouldn't make any difference...it's the US that holds all the cards. Biden has failed in his attempts to get Netanyahu to stop, whatever carrot or stick he tried to use didn't work....and now US election means nothing is going to happen. If Harris gets in maybe there will be a tougher policy against Israel, maybe. If Trump gets in, who knows...maybe Netanyahu will agree to stop for some more Abraham accord type stuff, maybe Trump will say go take West Bank I won't stand in your way.

A sh*t load going through British airbase on Cyprus though … I know it’s Germany and US providing bulk of the weapons . Which is unfathomable in its own way 

[steviewevie]

27 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

A sh*t load going through British airbase on Cyprus though … I know it’s Germany and US providing bulk of the weapons . Which is unfathomable in its own way 

yeah, I don't know what's what with any of that.

I think Germany might have stopped.

Israel actually has a big weapon industry itself, I think we buy more off them then they do from us.

But, they still get a lot from US.

[steviewevie]

fun fact...back in the 50s France was the big weapons supplier to Israel

[Skip997]

11 hours ago, steviewevie said:

7th October anniversary. Barbarity and lack of humanity from both sides. A total disaster for Gaza and it's citizens. The world feared escalation but didn't do enough to stop it.

Sadly not surprising since “gods  chosen people” are involved 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Skip997 said:

Sadly not surprising since “gods  chosen people” are involved 

christians?

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Skip997 said:

Sadly not surprising since “gods  chosen people” are involved 

northerners?

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Skip997 said:

Sadly not surprising since “gods  chosen people” are involved 

Americans?

[steviewevie]

42 minutes ago, Skip997 said:

Sadly not surprising since “gods  chosen people” are involved 

Surely you wouldn't be referring to Jews, on this day of all days?

Surely not.